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Climate Change Will Aggravate South Asian Cropland Exposure to Drought by the Middle of 21st Century
AbstractDrought has a paramount impact on global agriculture and food security. However, the study on future cropland areas that can incur drought is inadequate. This paper uses input parameters from 7 CMIP6 models for 7 future scenarios (SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP4‐3.4, SSP2‐4.5, SSP4‐6.0, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) to measure South Asian cropland exposure to drought and its underlying factors. Some defined epochs such as 2021–2040 (near‐term), 2041–2060 (mid‐term), 2081–2100 (long‐term), and 1995–2014 (reference period) are designed to explore diverse outlooks of the change. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and the Run theory methods are applied to detect drought. Results indicate an intensified cropland (under SSP4‐3.4, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) in the Indo‐Gangetic Plain region of South Asia, where mostly the variation occurs among scenarios and periods. Notably, the future cropland exposed to drought will increase in the 2021–2040, and 2041–2060 periods, but it intends to decline during the 2081–2100. Relatively, the exposed cropland will upturn highest by 49.2% (SSP3‐7.0) in the mid‐term period and decrease by −8.2% (SSP5‐8.5) in the end future. Spatially, distributed cropland in the central, south‐west, and portion of the northeast of South Asia are subjective to be exposed largely, but it can drop greatly across the eastern part by the end future. Importantly, the climate change effect plays a grounding role in future exposure change over the region during the near to mid‐term periods, while the cropland change effect is predominant in the long‐term perspectives. However, these findings signify the urgency of policymaking focusing on drought mitigation to ensure food security.
China’s Socioeconomic and CO2 Status Concerning Future Land-Use Change under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
China has experienced a huge socioeconomic advancement over the past few decades, resulting in great change in land use and land cover. To date, negligible attention has been given to examining the socioeconomic changes in the context of land-use change, especially from a futuristic standpoint. However, motivated by China’s latest carbon neutrality target, this study analyzes the prospective changes in socioeconomic status, and carbon dioxide emission in the context of future land-use change, focusing on three future periods: 2026–2030 (carbon dioxide peak phase), 2056–2060 (carbon-neutral phase), and 2080–2099 (long-term period). In this regard, recently published land-use products under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-based scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) as part of the CMIP6, as well as the projected GDP and population under five socioeconomic scenarios are used. To estimate socioeconomic change over prominent land-use types (urban), we combined five socioeconomic scenarios with seven corresponding SSPs-based land-use change scenarios (SSP1 with SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6; SSP2 with SSP2-4.5; SSP3 with SSP3-7.0; SSP4 with SSP4-3.4 and SSP4-6.0; and SSP5 with SSP5-8.5 scenarios). Our results reveal that rapid urban land expansion in the future is the most dominant aspect in China. In the carbon neutrality phase (2056–2060), urban land is expected to expand ~80% more than that of the reference period (1995–2014). In the spatial aspect, the expansion of urban land is mainly prominent in the eastern and central parts of China. For socioeconomic changes, the most prominent increase in the urban population is estimated at 630.8% under SSP5-8.5 for the 2056–2060 period compared to the reference period. Regarding GDP for the urban area, industrial GDP will be higher than service GDP in the carbon emission peak phase (2026–2030), but it is projected to be overtaken by service GDP for the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) and long-term periods (2080–2099). Further, the CO2 emission in China was found to increase with intensified urban land for the historical period (1995–2019). In the future, the largest increase in CO2 emission from the urban area is anticipated under SSP5-8.5 in the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) phase, while CO2 emission will largely decline after (2056–2060) under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, and SSP4-3.4. Importantly, population change is expected to be the most predominant factor in future urban land expansion in China. These findings highlight the importance of well-governed urban-land development as a key measure to achieve China’s carbon neutrality goal.