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Climate warming, ecological dynamics and nature conservation drive tree diversity in Wigierski National Park, Poland

2025, Robakowski, Piotr, Jagiełło, Radosław, Baranowska, Marlena, Bułaj, Bartosz, Dering, Monika, Hauke-Kowalska, Maria, Korzeniewicz, Robert, Łukowski, Adrian, Szmyt, Janusz Stanisław, Zadworny, Marcin, Wierzbicka, Anna, Popek, Robert, Przybysz, Arkadiusz, Kowalkowski, Wojciech, Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu

In response to ongoing climate warming, tree species adapted to colder climates are expected to shift their geographic ranges northward. Within the framework of long-term ecological monitoring in Wigry National Park (northeastern Poland), observed changes in forest biocenoses reflect the combined influence of climate change and natural ecological dynamics. This study compares dendroflora composition and diversity between two monitoring periods, 2011 and 2024, as part of an ongoing effort to track climate-related ecological shifts. Tree observations and meas­urements were carried out using concentric circular plots. In the largest plots, all trees with a diameter at breast height (d.b.h.) ≥ 12 cm were recorded by species, and their d.b.h. was measured. In the smaller plots, all trees with a d.b.h. ≥ 2 cm and < 2 cm but taller than 30 cm were similarly identified and measured. Data were recorded with Field-Map software integrated with an electronic calliper. The species-level taxonomic data, individual counts and basal area per species and plot were used to calculate biodiversity indices. Over the 13-year interval, a marked increase in overall dendroflora diversity was observed. Notably, the dominance of canopy-forming conifers – Pinus sylvestris and, to a lesser extent, Picea abies – measured as the proportion of individuals or stem density, has declined. This decline of coniferous species has been accompanied by an increase in the abundance and diversity of broadleaved deciduous species, including Tilia cordata, Quercus robur, Betula pendula, and Acer platanoides. Other thermophilous deciduous taxa also ex­hibited upward trends in both presence and abundance. Furthermore, the exponential of Shannon entropy, reached the highest value when evergreen conifers comprised 35% of the stand composition in 2011 and 18% in 2024. This finding suggests that maximum dendroflora diversity reaches its highest level at an intermediate proportion of conifers presence, rather than under conifers dominance or absence. Collectively, the pro­cesses occurring in Wigierski National Park illustrate the gradual shift in ecotonal forest ecosystems from cold-adapted coniferous species to broadleaved deciduous taxa due to ongoing climate change.

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Adaptive Silviculture and Climate Change—A Forced Marriage of the 21st Century?

2024, Szmyt, Janusz Stanisław, Dering, Monika

Climatic changes significantly impact forest ecosystems, inevitably affecting forestry and forest-related industry. Considering that most forests are actively managed, there is a need to define the future risks and set a strategy for forestry and silviculture in a changing world. This review provides insight into the new challenges and opportunities forest management and silviculture face in the coming decades. There is sound recognition of risk factors expected from climate change, yet great uncertainty exists in the predictions of the response of forests to new conditions. Additionally, the stakeholders’ interests in the goods and services offered by forests are changing, and this also needs to be taken into account in future forest management. Undoubtedly, the goal of future forestry and silviculture in the 21st century will be primarily to ensure the continuity and sustainability of the forest. Sustainable use of goods and ecosystem services from forests will be directly related to the continuity and sustainability of the forest in the future. Adaptive forest management aims to promote the adaptive capacity of forests to new conditions resulting from climate change. If adaptation efforts are effective, adaptive forest management should be a kind of risk management. There is no one-fits-all strategy for adaptation to uncertain future conditions. Silviculture in the 21st century is expected to be more conducive to adapting forests to changes. Operational silvicultural activities should focus on ensuring the resilience and adaptation of forests to future environmental conditions. Modern silviculture offers activities that fall within the scope of contemporary close-to-nature silviculture practices. However, some of the currently applied practices will require review and modification to be applicable under new conditions. This review also identifies the need to fill knowledge gaps in order to develop more effective and flexible adaptation strategies to foster sustainable forest development and, thus, sustainable forestry.