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Is Everything Lost? Recreating the Surface Water Temperature of Unmonitored Lakes in Poland
One of the fundamental features of lakes is water temperature, which determines the functioning of lake ecosystems. However, the overall range of information related to the monitoring of this parameter is quite limited, both in terms of the number of lakes and the duration of measurements. This study addresses this gap by reconstructing the lake surface water temperature (LSWT) of six lakes in Poland from 1994 to 2023, where direct measurements were discontinued. The reconstruction is based on the Air2Water model, which establishes a statistical relationship between LSWT and air temperature. Model validation using historical observations demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency exceeding 0.92 and root mean squared error ranging from 0.97 °C to 2.13 °C across the lakes. A trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator indicated a statistically significant warming trend in all lakes, with an average increase of 0.35 °C per decade. Monthly trends were most pronounced in June, September, and November, exceeding 0.50 °C per decade in some cases. The direction, pace, and scale of these changes are crucial for managing individual lakes, both from an ecological and economic perspective.
How Useful Are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Observations for Inland Water Temperature Monitoring and Warming Trend Assessment in Temperate Lakes in Poland?
Continuous software development and widespread access to satellite imagery allow for obtaining increasingly accurate data on the natural environment. They play an important role in hydrosphere research, and one of the most frequently addressed issues in the era of climate change is the thermal dynamics of its components. Interesting research opportunities in this area are provided by the utilization of data obtained from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS). These data have been collected for over two decades and have already been used to study water temperature in lakes. In the case of Poland, there is a long history of studying the thermal regime of lakes based on in situ observations, but so far, MODIS data have not been used in these studies. In this study, the available products, such as 1-day and 8-day MODIS land surface temperature (LST), were validated. The obtained data were compared with in situ measurements, and the reliability of using these data to estimate long-term thermal changes in lake waters was also assessed. The analysis was conducted based on the example of two coastal lakes located in Poland. The results of 1-day LST MODIS generally showed a good fit compared to in situ measurements (average RMSE 1.9 °C). However, the analysis of long-term trends of water temperature changes revealed diverse results compared to such an approach based on field measurements. This situation is a result of the limited number of satellite data, which is dictated by environmental factors associated with high cloud cover reaching 60% during the analysis period.
Three Environments, One Problem: Forecasting Water Temperature in Central Europe in Response to Climate Change
Water temperature is a fundamental parameter influencing a range of biotic and abiotic processes occurring within various components of the hydrosphere. This study presents a multi-step, data-driven predictive modeling framework to estimate water temperatures for the period 2021–2100 in three aquatic environments in Central Europe: the Odra River, the Szczecin Lagoon, and the Baltic Sea. The framework integrates Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Random Sample Consensus (RANSAC) regression, Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), and Random Forest (RF) machine learning models. To assess the performance of the models, the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were used. The results showed that the application of statistical downscaling methods improved the prediction of air temperatures with respect to the BMA. Moreover, the RF method was used to predict water temperature. The best model performance was obtained for the Baltic Sea and the lowest for the Odra River. Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenario-based simulations, projected air temperature increases in the period 2021–2100 could range from 1.5 °C to 1.7 °C and 4.7 to 5.1 °C. In contrast, the increase in water temperatures by 2100 will be between 1.2 °C and 1.6 °C (SSP2-4.5 scenario) and between 3.5 °C and 4.9 °C (SSP5-8.5).
Long-term trends in water level fluctuations in lowland lakes in central Europe (Northern Poland)
Utilizing Multi-Source Datasets for the Reconstruction and Prediction of Water Temperature in Lake Miedwie (Poland)
Water temperature is a fundamental parameter of aquatic ecosystems. It directly influences most processes occurring within them. Hence, knowledge of this parameter’s behavior, based on long-term (reliable) observations, is crucial. Gaps in these observations can be filled using contemporary methodological solutions. Difficulties in reconstructing water temperature arise from the selection of an appropriate methodology, and overcoming them involves the proper selection of input data and choosing the optimal modeling approach. This study employed the air2water model and Landsat satellite imagery to reconstruct the water temperature of Lake Miedwie (the fifth largest in Poland), for which field observations conducted by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute ended in the late 1980s. The approach based on satellite images in this case yielded less accurate results than model analyses. However, it is important to emphasize the advantage of satellite images over point measurements in the spatial interpretation of lake thermal conditions. In the studied case, due to the lake’s shape, the surface water layer showed no significant thermal contrasts. Based on the model data, long-term changes in water temperature were determined, which historically (1972–2023) amounted to 0.20 °C per decade. According to the adopted climate change scenarios by the end of the 21st century (SSP245 and SSP585), the average annual water temperature will be higher by 1.8 °C and 3.2 °C, respectively. It should be emphasized that the current and simulated changes are unfavorable, especially considering the impact of temperature on water quality. From an economic perspective, Lake Miedwie serves as a reservoir of drinking water, and changes in the thermal regime should be considered in the management of this ecosystem.
Effect of Hydraulic Structure on Mitigating Extreme Hydrological Conditions of a Small River in the Temperate Zone (Główna River, Central Europe)
Water resources are of elementary economic and environmental importance, and the observed global transformations as well as regional environmental conditions necessitate activities aimed at providing an optimal amount of water at different levels. One such solution is hydrotechnical infrastructure that permits the precise control of the amount of water in the catchment. This paper presents results concerning changes in the water flow in the Główna River in Poland before (1955–1983) and after (1984–2021) the construction of the Kowalski Reservoir. In the former period, there were no changes in water flow, and the obtained results were not statistically significant (p 0.05). In the period after the construction of the reservoir, a decreasing trend in monthly flow was observed in December, April, July, September, and October. Moreover, a decrease in 1, 3, 7, and 90 day maximum flow was observed. For maximum 30 day flow, the changes were below the threshold of the adopted significance level. Moreover, minimum flow in the period after the construction of the reservoir showed no significant decreasing trend. In hydrological terms, the reservoir served its purpose by contributing to the stabilisation of the water flow. This information is important from the point of view of an increase in retention and corresponds with a broader programme conducted in the territory of Poland. In the context of the construction of further reservoirs, it is important to investigate the current range of changes in water circulation for objects of the type already functioning in the environment, constituting an actual point of reference.
A Century of Changes in the Surface Area of Lakes in West Poland
Lakes are an important element of the hydrosphere that contribute to the stabilisation of water circulation by providing biodiversity conditions or supporting the development of different branches of the economy. All these properties depend on the longevity of lakes in the environment and the processes related to their evolution. Based on archival morphometric data from historical maps and modern cartographic studies, this paper presents an analysis of changes in their surface area over a period of 100 years. Among 169 lakes, a decrease in surface area was recorded in 156 cases (including the complete disappearance of two lakes); no change was observed in four lakes; and seven lakes increased their surface area. The total surface area of all the lakes has decreased by 11.4% in comparison with the initial state in the early 20th century. The highest rate of decline concerned the shallowest lakes with a maximum depth of up to 5.0 m and lakes with the smallest surface area of up to 20 ha, averaging 24.1% and 22.2%, respectively. The spatial distribution of changes in the surface area of lakes is variable, and at a larger scale it presents no similarities. This suggests that factors determining the rate and direction of changes in the surface area of lakes depend on their individual features and local conditions, which is in accordance with similar studies from the territory of Poland. The obtained results reveal the scale of the changes in the surface area of the lakes, potentially providing important information for authorities in charge of water management in the context of activities aimed at slowing down the disappearance of these valuable ecosystems.
Air and Water Temperature Relationships in Major Polish Rivers and Their Long-Term Changes
Large rivers are crucial for the functioning of individual regions and entire countries. However, despite their importance, relevant data allowing for a full assessment of the processes and phenomena occurring within them are often lacking. In the contemporary context, climate change has become a key factor affecting river ecosystems, leading to transformations in one of their fundamental characteristics—thermal conditions. This study analyzes the relationships between air temperature and water temperature in the four largest rivers in Poland, using a diversified methodological approach (wavelet analysis, lag non-linear models, copula), which broadens the current understanding of rivers in Central Europe. All three analytical paths confirmed a strong relationship between the two media, forming a basis for further research aimed at addressing data gaps and determining the direction and rate of changes over the period 1965–2024. All cases showed a statistically significant positive trend, with rates varying slightly from 0.32 to 0.38 °C · decade−1 (an average increase of 0.35 °C · decade−1). The ongoing transformation of the thermal regime—its scale and rate—should be taken into account in interdisciplinary studies of river ecosystems, as well as by agencies responsible for water resource management. This issue is particularly important in the context of sustainable development, where the economic use and ecological condition of river systems are closely linked to water temperature.