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The Impact of Selected Market Factors on the Prices of Wood Industry By-Products in Poland in the Context of Climate Policy Changes
The objective of this study was to analyze price variability and the factors influencing the formation of monthly prices of by-products of the wood industry in Poland between October 2017 and January 2025. The analysis considered the impact of economic variables, including energy commodity prices (natural gas and coal) and industrial wood prices, on the pricing of wood industry by-products. The adopted approach enabled the identification of key determinants shaping the prices of these by-products. The effectiveness of two tree-based regression models—Random Forest (RF) and CatBoost (CB)—was compared in the analysis. Although RF offers greater interpretability and lower computational requirements, CB proved more effective in modeling dynamic, time-dependent phenomena. The results indicate that industrial wood prices exerted a weaker influence on by-product prices than natural gas prices, suggesting that the energy sector plays a leading role in shaping biomass prices. Coal prices had only a marginal impact on the biomass market, implying that changes in coal availability and pricing did not directly translate into changes in the prices of wood industry by-products. The growing role of renewable energy sources derived from natural gas and wood biomass is contributing to the emergence of a distinct market, increasingly independent of the traditional coal market. In Poland, due to limited access to alternative energy sources, biomass plays a critical role in the decarbonization of the energy sector.
The use of forest biomass for energy purposes in selected european countries
The utilization of primary and secondary woody biomass resources, despite controversies, is being promoted to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and due to the need to diversify energy sources and ensure energy security in European Union countries. Forest biomass is one of the renewable and sustainable energy sources that can be used for electricity, heat, and biofuel production. In the context of the ongoing energy crisis in Europe, an attempt was made to analyze the production and consumption of woody biomass for energy purposes (fuel wood, chips, and pellets). Specifically, an analysis of similarities between European countries in terms of biomass utilization was conducted. The analysis was complemented by a forecast of primary biomass production in selected European countries. The similarity analysis was conducted using the Ward method. Artificial neural networks (ANNs), including multi-layer feedforward perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) models, were used to predict fuelwood extraction. The study showed that woody biomass remains an important source of bioenergy in Europe, and its significance as a strategic resource guaranteeing energy security is likely to increase. Fuel wood harvesting in Europe generally shows an upward trend, particularly in the Czech Republic, Germany, Estonia, Denmark, and the UK. A decreasing trend was observed in France, Spain, Greece, and Cyprus. The analysis revealed differences between countries in terms of woody biomass consumption. The ANN-based forecasts of fuelwood supply generally showed an increase in primary biomass harvesting.