The Impact of Selected Market Factors on the Prices of Wood Industry By-Products in Poland in the Context of Climate Policy Changes

The objective of this study was to analyze price variability and the factors influencing the formation of monthly prices of by-products of the wood industry in Poland between October 2017 and January 2025. The analysis considered the impact of economic variables, including energy commodity prices (natural gas and coal) and industrial wood prices, on the pricing of wood industry by-products. The adopted approach enabled the identification of key determinants shaping the prices of these by-products. The effectiveness of two tree-based regression models—Random Forest (RF) and CatBoost (CB)—was compared in the analysis. Although RF offers greater interpretability and lower computational requirements, CB proved more effective in modeling dynamic, time-dependent phenomena. The results indicate that industrial wood prices exerted a weaker influence on by-product prices than natural gas prices, suggesting that the energy sector plays a leading role in shaping biomass prices. Coal prices had only a marginal impact on the biomass market, implying that changes in coal availability and pricing did not directly translate into changes in the prices of wood industry by-products. The growing role of renewable energy sources derived from natural gas and wood biomass is contributing to the emergence of a distinct market, increasingly independent of the traditional coal market. In Poland, due to limited access to alternative energy sources, biomass plays a critical role in the decarbonization of the energy sector.