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The Impact of Selected Market Factors on the Prices of Wood Industry By-Products in Poland in the Context of Climate Policy Changes
The objective of this study was to analyze price variability and the factors influencing the formation of monthly prices of by-products of the wood industry in Poland between October 2017 and January 2025. The analysis considered the impact of economic variables, including energy commodity prices (natural gas and coal) and industrial wood prices, on the pricing of wood industry by-products. The adopted approach enabled the identification of key determinants shaping the prices of these by-products. The effectiveness of two tree-based regression models—Random Forest (RF) and CatBoost (CB)—was compared in the analysis. Although RF offers greater interpretability and lower computational requirements, CB proved more effective in modeling dynamic, time-dependent phenomena. The results indicate that industrial wood prices exerted a weaker influence on by-product prices than natural gas prices, suggesting that the energy sector plays a leading role in shaping biomass prices. Coal prices had only a marginal impact on the biomass market, implying that changes in coal availability and pricing did not directly translate into changes in the prices of wood industry by-products. The growing role of renewable energy sources derived from natural gas and wood biomass is contributing to the emergence of a distinct market, increasingly independent of the traditional coal market. In Poland, due to limited access to alternative energy sources, biomass plays a critical role in the decarbonization of the energy sector.
Taxonomy Regulation as a New Instrument for the Sustainable Management of the Forest Environment in Europe
Regulation (EU) 2020/852 of the European Parliament, also known as the Taxonomy Regulation, facilitates environmentally sustainable investments. It is part of the concept of the European Green Deal and a ‘tool’ for financial institutions, enterprises, and investors, facilitating the assessment of the environmental impact of a particular project. The Regulation contains the criteria an activity must meet to be considered environmentally sustainable. The role of the Taxonomy Regulation is to enable the flow of public and private capital towards ecological and sustainable activities. The document does not need to be implemented into the legal order of individual EU member-states, which results in its direct application. The main financial instruments enabling the achievement of the goals of the Taxonomy Regulation may be green bonds and other forms of capital raising by entrepreneurs and forest ownership structures. The assumption of the Regulation is to achieve the principles of sustainable environmental activity when spending funds obtained from private investors. It is an issue of key significance to identify the areas of management and financial accounting in the operational activities of forest enterprises that can be qualified for the Taxonomy Regulation. Forestry activities, including the processes mentioned therein, the objectives of the New EU Forest Strategy, and the LULUCF Regulation, are to play an essential role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The role of forestry in the supply chain in its broad sense is also considered. Forestry and forest management can receive capital for sustainable development due to the threat resulting from exclusions that strengthen the protective function of the forest (the protection of biodiversity). These processes will occur at the expense of production and numerous social functions.
Predicting Post-Production Biomass Prices
This paper presents the application of prediction in the analysis of market price volatility in Polish conditions of wood processing by-products in the form of biomass. The ARIMA model, which takes into account cyclical, seasonal, irregular fluctuations of historical data on the basis of which the forecast and long-term trends of selected wood products were made, was used in predicting prices. Comparisons were made between the ARIMA prediction method and the multiplicative Winters–Holt model. During the period studied (2017–2022), the changes in the market price of biomass were characterized by a wide spread of values. On average, the price of these products increased from 2017 to the end of 2022 by 125%. The price prediction analysis showed seasonal fluctuations in the case of wood chips. The uncertainty in price prediction is due to changes in supply resulting from the influence of global factors. The Diebold–Mariano test of matching accuracy confirms that the price prediction of the analyzed by-product sorts using the ARIMA and WH models is possible. The conclusion reached by comparing these two methods is that each can be used under certain market conditions of certain assortments. In the case of a stable wood product, the choice of the ARIMA model should be resolved, while in the case of price volatile products, WH will be a better choice. The difference between the predicted and actual price with ARIMA ranged from 2.4% to 11.6% and for WH from 3.7% to 29.8%.
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Clustering of EU Forest Policies in the Context of the 2030 New Forest Strategy
In the face of climate challenges and growing social inequalities, ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) has become a key framework for sustainable development. Within the EU, forestry—covering about one third of Europe—is increasingly addressed through ESG principles in the 2030 New EU Forest Strategy (NSF 2030). This study aims to systematize the diversity and similarities of EU Member States’ forest policies using ESG indicators aligned with NFS 2030 objectives. We do not assess policy outcomes but rather identify clusters of countries with similar forest-economy profiles to fill a research gap and support more coherent strategies. Using hierarchical clustering on selected ESG indicators, we find very high variability in EU forest policies. The results confirm that NFS 2030 can serve as an analytical tool to identify clusters of countries with similar ESG profiles and tailor policies to their contexts. The identification of eight clusters per ESG segment underscores the need for a differentiated, flexible approach to achieving common EU forest objectives. Despite similarities within clusters, diverse economic, environmental, and social conditions often require differentiated policies tailored to each country’s unique context.
Verification of the Assumptions of the Polish State Forest Policy in the Context of the New EU Forest Strategy 2030
Despite the lack of legal tools to interfere in the forest policy of the member states, the European Union has initiated the New EU Forest Strategy 2030 (NFS), which emphasizes the protective functions of forests, modifying the interpretation of sustainable forest management. The aim of the study was to compare the State Forest Policy (SFP) in Poland with the assumptions of the New UE Forest Strategy 2030, identifying challenges for Polish forestry. The compliance of both documents was verified, taking into account their objectives, implementation methods, and differences. The analysis showed the coherence of the direction of both policies, while the differences in the methods of achieving the objectives result from divergent interpretations of the concept of sustainable forest management. It is necessary to develop a new definition taking into account the conditions of EU countries and to develop a system of measures enabling the comparison of the degree of implementation of this goal. Previous EU strategies had minimal impact on national legal systems. Diverse concepts of forest management in EU countries make it difficult to implement a common long-term strategy, giving subsequent documents a general character. NFS is a theoretical document presenting a vision of forests from the perspective of EU policy, and SFP serves as a historical document that can be a reference point for modifying assumptions based on contemporary realities. Creating normative acts without taking into account contemporary conditions may be contrary to the direction of development of forestry in Europe. A bottom-up approach, based on consensus of member states, to creating a coherent forest policy at the EU level is more justified.
Characterization and Evaluation of the Organizational and Legal Structures of Forestry in the European Union
Achieving organizational efficiency requires the selection of an appropriate operating model. To date, no objective indicators, methods of measuring, or criteria for evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of forest management organizations have been developed. In the heterogeneous forest management of the European Union (EU), multiple objectives and functions—from production to social and ecological services—coexist at regional and national levels. This study provides an overview of the organizational and legal forms of EU forestry, taking into account environmental conditions, ownership structures, and the role of the forestry sector in national economies. The legal information of EU countries on forest management was verified. We examine the impact of the entity’s organizational and legal form on the implementation of sustainable forest management and the objectives of the New EU Forest Strategy 2030, particularly in terms of absorbing external capital for forest protection and climate-related activities. Joint stock companies, public institutions, and enterprises are the most relevant. The private sector is dominated by individual farms, associations, chambers of commerce, and federations. A clear trend toward transforming state-owned enterprises into joint-stock companies and expanding their operational scope has been confirmed. Multifunctional forest management is practiced in both state and private forests. Economic efficiency, legal and property liability, and organizational goals depend on the chosen organizational and legal form.
The use of forest biomass for energy purposes in selected european countries
The utilization of primary and secondary woody biomass resources, despite controversies, is being promoted to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and due to the need to diversify energy sources and ensure energy security in European Union countries. Forest biomass is one of the renewable and sustainable energy sources that can be used for electricity, heat, and biofuel production. In the context of the ongoing energy crisis in Europe, an attempt was made to analyze the production and consumption of woody biomass for energy purposes (fuel wood, chips, and pellets). Specifically, an analysis of similarities between European countries in terms of biomass utilization was conducted. The analysis was complemented by a forecast of primary biomass production in selected European countries. The similarity analysis was conducted using the Ward method. Artificial neural networks (ANNs), including multi-layer feedforward perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) models, were used to predict fuelwood extraction. The study showed that woody biomass remains an important source of bioenergy in Europe, and its significance as a strategic resource guaranteeing energy security is likely to increase. Fuel wood harvesting in Europe generally shows an upward trend, particularly in the Czech Republic, Germany, Estonia, Denmark, and the UK. A decreasing trend was observed in France, Spain, Greece, and Cyprus. The analysis revealed differences between countries in terms of woody biomass consumption. The ANN-based forecasts of fuelwood supply generally showed an increase in primary biomass harvesting.