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The effects of emergency situations on fruit production and purchase prices in Poland
In recent years, in Poland there have been emergency situations causing difficulties and threats to fruit producers. In 2007 and 2017 there were severe frosts during the flowering period of fruit trees and shrubs. In 2014 the Russian Federation introduced an embargo on the import of agricultural products from the EU member-states. In 2020 there was the COVID-19 pandemic. In February 2022 Russia started war against Ukraine. The aim of this study was to assess changes in the level of fruit yields and purchase prices in the years when the aforementioned emergency situations occurred, to determine whether they led to fruit production crises in Poland, and to assess the ways the crises were overcome. In order to assess the strength of the crisis, deviations of the yield and purchase prices of selected fruits (apples, sour cherries, raspberries, and blackcurrants) from the average of the four years preceding the occurrence of the emergency situation were calculated. The study showed that the emergency situations caused by spring frosts were accompanied by fruit yield losses. However, this did not lead to a fruit production crisis, because lower yields were compensated by higher fruit purchase prices. In 2014 the Russian embargo on apples increased the supply of these fruits, which led to a decrease in their purchase prices. In order to counteract the crisis, fruits were withdrawn from the market. The COVID-19 pandemic drew consumers’ attention to healthy nutrition. Consumers became more interested in eating fruit and the prices of superfruits (raspberries, blackcurrants) increased. Military operations caused disruptions in international trade and changes in fruit purchase prices in Poland. The emergency situation caused by the war in Ukraine was accompanied by higher import of fruit products from that country and a decrease in the purchase prices of fruit (mainly raspberries) in Poland.
Determinants of the level and volatility of blackcurrant purchase prices in Poland
The aim of the study was to identify the factors which significantly influence the purchase prices of blackcurrants in Poland. The average annual purchase prices of blackcurrants between 2004 and 2021 were the research material. The study was based on the data published by the Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics – National Research Institute in the semi-annual journal “Fruit and Vegetable Market”. The relationship between the fruit purchase prices and the selected explanatory variables was analysed with the multiple regression method. Single-equation econometric models were designated as multi-factor functions. The reference publications were used as the basis for the selection of the following set of potential variables explaining the purchase prices of blackcurrants: the area of blackcurrant plantations in Poland, the yields of blackcurrants in Poland, the yields of blackcurrants in Ukraine, the yields of blackcurrants in Germany (the main importer of frozen products and a producer of currants), the volume of frozen blackcurrant exports and the export price of frozen blackcurrants. Apart from that, the qualitative variable COVID-19 was created, which allowed for the greater demand for blackcurrant preserves during the pandemic. In order to determine the factors which significantly influenced the purchase prices of blackcurrants during the period under analysis, the all possible regression method, also known as the best subsets regression, available in the Statistica PL package, was applied. This was a model with two explanatory variables: the export price of frozen blackcurrants and COVID-19. The linear determination coefficient of the estimated econometric model indicated that 90% of the variance of blackcurrant purchase prices was explained by the model.
Determinants of purchase prices of apples for processing in Poland
The aim of the study was to identify the significant determinants of the level of purchase prices of apples for processing in Poland. The subject of the research is purchase prices of apples for processing published in the semi-annual Fruit and Vegetable Market by the Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics – National Research Institute. The study showed that the purchase prices of apples for processing in Poland were significantly influenced by the export prices of apples, the volume of the export of concentrated apple juice, and the export prices of concentrated apple juice. The increase in the export prices of apples may be caused by the growing demand for Polish apples on foreign markets, which may result in lower availability of apples for processing. Therefore, the increase in the export prices of apples was accompanied by the increase in the purchase prices of these fruits for processing. The volume of export of concentrated apple juice depends on the volume of production of this processed product, which is influenced by the volume of apples harvested in Poland. The volume of apples harvested is negatively correlated with the purchase prices of apples for processing. Therefore, the increase in the export of concentrated apple juice was accompanied by relatively low purchase prices of apples for processing. The level of export prices of concentrated apple juice was strongly related to the level of purchase prices of apples for processing and the increase of purchase prices of apples was accompanied by an increase in export prices of concentrated apple juice.