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Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia-Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security
The Russian–Ukrainian conflict has led to the disruption of global supply chains, thus posing a threat to food security. The study aimed to assess the short-term impact of the conflict on food supply and global retail food prices resulting from the disruption of agri-food exports from Ukraine after the war outbreak. To assess the impact of the conflict on retail prices worldwide, the actual food price level during the conflict period was compared with the counterfactual values obtained from the forecasting models. The research points to a significant decline in Ukraine’s commodity exports at the beginning of the conflict leading to a supply gap for cereals in particular, affecting global access to staple foods. As a result, global food commodity prices rose sharply, however, the upsurge was short-lived, and as early as July 2022 price indices returned to their pre-war levels. On the other hand, in most regions worldwide the gradual and persistent increase in retail food prices was observed after the war outbreak. The study also found strong regional differentiation in the response of retail food prices to the conflict due to various specific factors that exacerbated or mitigated the impact of the war.
Wybrane preferencyjne umowy handlowe w wymianie produktami rolno-żywnościowymi Unii Europejskiej
Non-tariff dimension of neoprotectionism in world trade in agri-food products
The aim of this paper was to determine the scope of non-tariff measures used in the world agri-food trade in 2020. This study used data of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Global Trade Alert data. Applying the methodology developed by the UNCTAD and the World Trade Organization (WTO) three indexes were established to describe the use of non-tariff measures (NTMs) to trade, i.e., the Frequency Index, the Coverage Ratio and the Prevalence Ratio. The number of trade preferences and trade restrictions used by the largest exporters and importers of agri-food products was also measured. The analysis showed that the scope of use of non-tariff protection measures in world trade in agri-food products is much greater compared to other branches of the economy. In countries implementing a highly protectionist trade policy, such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Canada, the USA and Vietnam, non-tariff instruments were used in relation to all tariff lines and the entire value of import. To the greatest extent, non-tariff protection measures were adopted in the trade of non-processed plant origin products, including cereals, oilseeds and oleaginous fruit, fruit and vegetables, as well as dairy products. Countries most commonly implementing trade restrictions against their partners and, at the same time, at greatest risk of retaliatory actions on their part included EU countries, the USA and China.