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Climate Change Science and PolicyâA Guided Tour across the Space of Attitudes and Outcomes
The ongoing debate on global climate change has polarized societies since ever. The attitude of an individual towards its anthropogenic nature as well as the need and extent to which human beings should mitigate climate warming can result from a number of factors. Also, since the consequences of such alteration in global climate have no borders and became much more severe in the last decades, it is worth it to shed some more light on a current state of an interplay between scientific findings and climate policies. In this paper, we examine a low-dimensional space of possible attitudes toward climate change, its impact, attribution, and mitigation. Insights into those attitudes and evidence-based interpretations are offered. We review a range of inconvenient truths and convenient untruths, respectively, related to fundamental climate-change issues and derive a systematic taxonomy of climate-change skepticism. In addition, the media track related to climate change is reconstructed by examining a range of cover stories of important magazines and the development of those stories with global warming. In a second major step, we span a low-dimensional space of outcomes of the combined climate science-policy system, where each of the sub-systems may either succeed or fail. We conclude that the most probable outcome from todayâs perspective is still the same as it was 12 years ago: a tragic triumph, i.e., the success of climate science and the simultaneous failure of climate policy.
Assessing and Mitigating Ice-Jam Flood Hazards and Risks: A European Perspective
The assessment and mapping of riverine flood hazards and risks is recognized by many countries as an important tool for characterizing floods and developing flood management plans. Often, however, these management plans give attention primarily to open-water floods, with ice-jam floods being mostly an afterthought once these plans have been drafted. In some Nordic regions, ice-jam floods can be more severe than open-water floods, with floodwater levels of ice-jam floods often exceeding levels of open-water floods for the same return periods. Hence, it is imperative that flooding due to river ice processes be considered in flood management plans. This also pertains to European member states who are required to submit renewed flood management plans every six years to the European governance authorities. On 19 and 20 October 2022, a workshop entitled âAssessing and mitigating ice-jam flood hazard and riskâ was hosted in PoznaĆ, Poland to explore the necessity of incorporating ice-jam flood hazard and risk assessments in the European Unionâs Flood Directive. The presentations given at the workshop provided a good overview of flood risk assessments in Europe and how they may change due to the climate in the future. Perspectives from Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, and Poland were presented. Mitigation measures, particularly the artificial breakage of river ice covers and ice-jam flood forecasting, were shared. Advances in ice processes were also presented at the workshop, including state-of-the-art developments in tracking ice-floe velocities using particle tracking velocimetry, characterizing hanging dam ice, designing new ice-control structures, detecting, and monitoring river ice covers using composite imagery from both radar and optical satellite sensors, and calculating ice-jam flood hazards using a stochastic modelling approach.
Good weather for a ride (or not?): how weather conditions impact road accidents â a case study from Wielkopolska (Poland)
AbstractThis study offers a likely assessment of extreme meteorological eventsâ impact on human perceptivity, frame of mind or even health during driving which might have had a consequence as a car accident. Research covered an analysis of car accidents during period 2010â2019 in the Wielkopolska (Poland) and four indices like maximum daily temperature, maximum value of humidex, difference between maximum temperatures observed from day to day and also difference between mean atmospheric pressure at the sea level observed from day to day. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) approach was used to obtain the relationship between these indices and car accidents. Our finding evidence that the âgood weather for a rideâ conditions are actually generating an increased risk of accidents. For indices related to high temperature, i.e., maximum temperature and humidex, it was possible to identify the critical values by which the risks of car accidents were the highest.
Less power when more is needed. Climate-related current and possible future problems of the wind energy sector in Poland
A Review of Environmental Impacts of Wheat Production in Different Agrotechnical Systems
In light of the environmental challenges currently facing humanity, the issue of the environmental sustainability of crop production is becoming increasingly pressing. This is due to the fact that global population growth and the related demand for food are placing significant pressure on the environment. Wheat is a strategic crop globally due to its extensive cultivation area, high production and consumption levels, and vital nutritional properties. It is cultivated across diverse climatic conditions and within various agricultural production systems. It is of the utmost importance to pursue sustainable wheat production on a global scale, given the necessity to protect the environment and climate. The application of life cycle assessment (LCA) enables the identification of potential avenues for enhancing wheat production processes, thereby reducing the negative environmental impacts associated with these processes. This paper presents a synthesis of the existing literature on the environmental LCA of wheat grain production. It compares the impacts of different production systems, highlights critical stages in wheat cultivation, and provides recommendations for sustainable practices and directions for future research.
Is Controlled Drainage of Agricultural Land a Common Used Practice?âA Bibliographic Analysis
Controlled drainage (CD) is one of the basic techniques used to manage groundwater levels. Farmers can optimize water levels for crop growth at different stages of the growing season. Proper drainage water management can reduce the risk of soil erosion and surface water pollution. By controlling drainage, sediment and nutrient runoff can be minimized, leading to improved water quality in nearby streams and rivers. A mixed methods approach was used, which was based on the bibliometric analysis and content analysis of 462 articles using the bibliometrix R package and VOSviewer software. The article aimed to analyze the Author Keywords and KeyWords Plus to indicate the resulting clusters of complex interdependence that emerge from the main research areas. Continuous research continues to improve drainage techniques and systems to optimize agricultural water use. The results indicated the importance of researching the feasibility of CD for agriculture. The innovation of this study is that it points out the relevance of taking up the possibility of changing the use of unilateral subsurface drainage systems with another method of controlling drainage outflows as a current global challenge, contributing to filling this gap in the literature.
Risk of Flash Floods in Urban and Rural Municipalities Triggered by Intense Precipitation in Wielkopolska of Poland
AbstractThis research analyzed interventions of State Fire Service (SFS) units in the Wielkopolska region of Poland that were triggered by extreme precipitation for the period 2010â2021. Our results demonstrated that the most populated and urbanized towns in the Wielkopolska (Greater Poland, west of Warsaw) region are at the most risk in the event of extreme precipitation occurrence as measured by the total number of interventions made by the SFS. The number of SFS unit interventions in towns, standardized to 10,000 inhabitants, indicates that the highest proportional volume of interventions also occurred in smaller towns. In the rural municipalities the number of SFS unit interventions increases along with higher population density and proportion of infrastructure areas. As analyzed in this study, the 12 years from 2010 to 2021 were characterized by a higher number of days with heavy precipitation, for example, 20, 30, 40, and 50 mm, in comparison to the previous periods 1961â2010 and 1981â2010. Intervention databases collected by emergency services are a valuable source of information for hazard mapping. Based on those and other available data, a statistical model was created and factors influencing the local and regional occurrence of interventions were determined. Increasing suburbanization, the rising proportion of impermeable surfaces, and the impact of climate change are of considerable importance in urban flood risk. It is necessary to help municipalities develop abilities to absorb larger amounts of rainwater.
Vulnerability to extreme weather events: mapping future hazards in Wielkopolska region, Poland
AbstractThe aim of this study is to assess future hazards due to extreme meteorological events in the Wielkopolska region, Poland, based on five climate model projections and three scenarios: SSP126, 370, and 585. The paper analyzes the changes of mean and extreme precipitation, mean and extreme temperatures, and humidity index, as well as changes in difference between maximum temperatures observed from day to day and changes in difference between mean atmospheric pressure at the sea level observed from day to day. Additionally, we look at possible future occurrence of wildfires due to changes in fire weather conditions. Based on climate model projections, future hazard due to extreme meteorological events in Wielkopolska region is to be more serious and will be most noticeable in the end of twenty-first century and for two higher scenarios: SSP370 and SSP585. For near future, 2021â2050, projected conditions of meteorological extremes for analyzed scenarios are quite consistent. Therefore, there is a strong need for implementing adaptation actions. Nevertheless, such activities are so far lacking, and several adaptation options are not present in local and national legislation, even though they are recognized as effective.
Heat-Related Mortality in Two Regions of Poland: Focus on Urban and Rural Areas during the Most Severe and Long-Lasting Heatwaves
The vast majority of studies on heat-related mortality are focused on large cities. The aim of this study is to fill this research gap and to estimate the impact of high temperatures on the risk of death in smaller towns and villages. The results show that increased mortality is not only a problem in large cities. The risk of death, although usually slightly lower than in highly populated areas, may be higher for the age-related risk group. At temperatures above 35 °C, it may exceed 1.3 in smaller towns and even 1.6 in villages. The increase in mortality during five selected heat waves of high intensity and long duration was also studied for two regions of Poland: MaĆopolska and Wielkopolska. Towns with a population of less than 10,000 in MaĆopolska region, during the 2006 heatwave, experienced an increase in the number of deaths by as much as 18%. At the same time in the largest city of MaĆopolska-KrakĂłw, the death toll rose by 4%. This paper also presents some differences between regions in terms of the impact of heat waves: in the lowland region of Wielkopolska, the mortality rate is generally higher than in the upland region of MaĆopolska.
The Emergence of Different Local Resilience Arrangements Regarding Extreme Weather Events in Small MunicipalitiesâA Case Study from the Wielkopolska Region, Poland
Compared with other parts of the world, Poland is a relatively safe country in terms of natural disasters. Nevertheless, extreme weather events have become a significant threat in recent years, especially for local communities. These are exposed to intense rainfall, heavy wind, and heatwaves, as are larger towns. However, small municipalities have different economic, social, and human potential for undertaking preventive actions regarding meteorological extremes. In this paper, we are looking at what activities local communities from the Wielkopolska region in Poland undertake to cope with extreme weather eventsâspecifically, heavy rainfall and heatwaves. We analyze the municipalities that are most and least exposed to extremes, based on meteorological data. These are further compared with local resilience measures in the event of extreme meteorological events through the risk management analysis of selected municipalities. The emergence of two approaches regarding extreme weather events has been observed. First, local arrangements consist of different resilience types. Both of the identified approaches are concentrated around rescue activities, representing recovery resilience. They differ in the second component of resilience: municipalities that have suffered more from weather extremes manifest more resistance resilience, whereas those communities where fewer meteorological events took place demonstrate more creativity-type resilience.
Legal Tools for Blue-Green Infrastructure PlanningâBased on the Example of PoznaĆ (Poland)
In Polish law, no mechanisms exist to maximize the application and protection of blue and green infrastructure (BGI) in urban areas. A comprehensive legal framework does not entirely govern urban BGI facilities. Urban planning lacks an appropriate indicator, first and foremost. This study aimed to analyze the Polish legal criteria for the viability of designing and implementing BGI facilities. The authors also researched ways to aid legislators in growing and maintaining BGI in urban areas. In PoznaĆ, a case study was carried out on applying the greenery planning and design law. Local spatial development plans (MPZP) are now the only legal tools in Poland that allow for the protection and establishment of BGI. According to data from Statistics Poland for 2021, the proportion of the countryâs total area covered by existing local plans (based on current law) is around 20.51%. When the MPZP does not cover a portion of a municipality, administrative decisions are made by issuing development conditions (WZ) for the plot. WZ may become a tool for environmental damage under investment pressure. Ideas put forward by the authors are: (1) creating urban nature reserves (as one method of land use); (2) evaluating BGI as an integral part of eco-physiographic studies and spatial planning; and (3) creating a new urban indicator with more complex parameters.