Ceny i relacje cenowe w rolnictwie w warunkach niepewności rynkowej na przykładzie Polski

The paper deals with the topic of risk and uncertainty in the economy, with a particular focus on the agricultural sector. The goal of the study is to point out the essence of this phenomenon, highlighting the specific conditions of agriculture manifested in the fact that there is not only economic (mainly price) risk, but also natural one. It also noted that some threats and challenges to the agricultural sector are long-term and predictable, while others are in the nature of sudden events that cannot be predicted. The issues discussed were illustrated using polish Central Statistical Office and Eurostat data from 2018-2022, which referred to prices and price relations in Polish agriculture. Such a time scope was determined by the fact that recent years have been fraught with unfavourable phenomena that have affected agriculture with varying degrees of force, primarily disrupting price stability. However, unlike the COVID-19 pandemic, which did not significantly affect the agricultural sector, the war in Ukraine contributed to an increase in the price of energy, then other inputs, and ultimately agricultural products. These phenomena are particularly important in Polish agriculture, where the cost of chemical yield-forming agents (mainly fertilizers) are significant in comparison with other EU countries.