Evaluation of Methods for Estimating Lake Surface Water Temperature Using Landsat 8

Changes in lake water temperature, observed with the greatest intensity during the last two decades, may significantly affect the functioning of these unique ecosystems. Currently, in situ studies in Poland are conducted only for 38 lakes using the single-point method. The aim of this study was to develop a method for remote sensing monitoring of lake water temperature in a spatio-temporal context based on Landsat 8 imagery. For this purpose, using data obtained for 28 lakes from the period 2013–2020, linear regression (LM) and random forest (RF) models were developed to estimate surface water temperature. In addition, analysis of Landsat Level-2 Surface Temperature Science Product (LST-L2) data provided by United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) was performed. The remaining 10 lakes not previously used in the model development stage were used to validate model performance. The results showed that the most accurate estimation is possible using the RF method for which RMSE = 1.83 °C and R2 = 0.89, while RMSE = 3.68 °C and R2 = 0.8 for the LST-L2 method. We found that LST-L2 contains a systematic error in the coastal zone, which can be corrected and eventually improve the quality of estimation. The satellite-based method makes it possible to determine water temperature for all lakes in Poland at different times and to understand the influence of climatic factors affecting temperature at the regional scale. On the other hand, spatial presentation of thermics within individual lakes enables understanding the influence of local factors and morphometric conditions.