Renewable energy in EU agribusiness: Review of progress in meeting 2030 renewable energy directive III targets

The European Union’s (EU) renewable energy targets for 2030 require a substantial acceleration in the adoption of renewable energy sources (RES) across all sectors. While macro-level progress has been notable, agriculture and agribusiness continue to lag in RES integration, thereby slowing down the overall pace of the energy transition. This study presents the first EU-wide assessment of RES uptake in these sectors, using an input–output model informed by RES targets extracted from the updated 2023 National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), prepared under the Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III). Unlike previous studies based on outdated RED II assumptions, this analysis reflects the revised 2023 policy landscape, providing a timely and policy relevant perspective. Convergence toward the 42.5 % RES target was estimated using two historical trends: 2014–2022 and 2018–2022. Under the first trend, the overall economy is projected to reach the target by 2045, with agribusiness and agriculture lagging by 6 and 27 years, respectively. Under the second, more recent trend, convergence could occur by 2040 for the overall economy, with delays of 7 years for agribusiness and 21 years for agriculture. Although the 2030 RES target appears achievable at the aggregate level, deep structural disparities persist. Accelerating the transition in lagging sectors will require targeted incentives, investments in decentralized energy systems, and geographically differentiated policies aligned with national and regional resource conditions. These findings indicate that strengthened rural investment frameworks in biogas or the electrification of farm machinery could help close the sectoral gaps in RES adoption.