Impacts of land use and cover changes on ecosystem service values from 1992 to 2052 in Gena District, Southwest Ethiopia

Land use and cover changes alter the functions and structures of ecosystem, resulting in variations in Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs). Thus, we examined the impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on ESVs from 1992 to 2052 using geospatial technologies. The Landsat images were classified using the supervised maximum likelihood classification technique, and future changes in LULC were predicted using the CA-Markov model. Ecosystem Service Values coefficients were adopted from empirical studies and ESVs changes were evaluated based on the benefit transfer method using LULC data for the study periods, with their corresponding modified ESVs coefficients. The results revealed that, the proportions of grassland, forestland and shrubland declined by 58.5 %, 48.15 % and 33.48 %, respectively, from 1992 to 2022. Simultaneously, the highest rate of expansions of waterbodies (34 times), farmland and settlement threefold as well as bareland (60.2 %) from 1992 to 2022 was noticed. As a result, decreasing trends were experienced in the total ESVs of the district from US$33.6 million in 1992 to US$27.79 million in 2022, and are anticipated to further decline to US$25.94 million in 2052. The ESVs of forestland, shrubland and grassland shrank from 53.1 %, 40 % and 2.78 % in 1992 to 33.28 %, 33.16 % and 1.4 % in 2022 these changes are anticipated to continue for the next three decades, except trend for the increase in grassland ecosystem service value. Therefore, the government should redesign effective land management strategies to alleviate the negative consequences of LULC changes, facilitate payment for ecosystem services, and design ecotourism to boost the income of residents for major land use management-based production systems to increase the ESV in the district.