Impact of Site Conditions on Quercus robur and Quercus petraea Growth and Distribution Under Global Climate Change

Abstract: Climate change has significant natural and economic implications, but its extent is particularly challenging to assess in forest management, a field which combines both of the previous aspects and requires the evaluation of the impact of climate change on tree species over a 100-year timeframe. Oaks are among the tree species of significant natural and economic value in Europe. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze all oak stands in Poland and verify the hypothesis regarding differences between Quercus robur and Quercus petraea stands in terms of soil type, annual total precipitation, average annual air temperature, and the length of the growing season. Additionally, this study aimed to analyze the impact of these differences on the growth rates of both oak species and test whether climate change may affect oak stands. A database containing 195,241 tree stands, including different oak species with varying shares in the stand (from 10% to 100%), was analyzed. A particular emphasis was placed on Q. robur and Q. petraea. The results show that, although both oak species have a wide common range of occurrence, there are clear differences in their habitat preferences. Based on the ordinal regression analysis of selected oak stands, it was concluded that an increase in air temperature of 1 ◦C could impair the growth of Q. robur and slightly improve the growth of Q. petraea. This may indicate the possibility of expanding the geographic range of sessile oaks towards the east and northeast under warming climatic conditions, provided that appropriate moisture conditions are maintained.