Filters
Vulnerability to extreme weather events: mapping future hazards in Wielkopolska region, Poland
AbstractThe aim of this study is to assess future hazards due to extreme meteorological events in the Wielkopolska region, Poland, based on five climate model projections and three scenarios: SSP126, 370, and 585. The paper analyzes the changes of mean and extreme precipitation, mean and extreme temperatures, and humidity index, as well as changes in difference between maximum temperatures observed from day to day and changes in difference between mean atmospheric pressure at the sea level observed from day to day. Additionally, we look at possible future occurrence of wildfires due to changes in fire weather conditions. Based on climate model projections, future hazard due to extreme meteorological events in Wielkopolska region is to be more serious and will be most noticeable in the end of twenty-first century and for two higher scenarios: SSP370 and SSP585. For near future, 2021–2050, projected conditions of meteorological extremes for analyzed scenarios are quite consistent. Therefore, there is a strong need for implementing adaptation actions. Nevertheless, such activities are so far lacking, and several adaptation options are not present in local and national legislation, even though they are recognized as effective.
Risk of Flash Floods in Urban and Rural Municipalities Triggered by Intense Precipitation in Wielkopolska of Poland
AbstractThis research analyzed interventions of State Fire Service (SFS) units in the Wielkopolska region of Poland that were triggered by extreme precipitation for the period 2010–2021. Our results demonstrated that the most populated and urbanized towns in the Wielkopolska (Greater Poland, west of Warsaw) region are at the most risk in the event of extreme precipitation occurrence as measured by the total number of interventions made by the SFS. The number of SFS unit interventions in towns, standardized to 10,000 inhabitants, indicates that the highest proportional volume of interventions also occurred in smaller towns. In the rural municipalities the number of SFS unit interventions increases along with higher population density and proportion of infrastructure areas. As analyzed in this study, the 12 years from 2010 to 2021 were characterized by a higher number of days with heavy precipitation, for example, 20, 30, 40, and 50 mm, in comparison to the previous periods 1961–2010 and 1981–2010. Intervention databases collected by emergency services are a valuable source of information for hazard mapping. Based on those and other available data, a statistical model was created and factors influencing the local and regional occurrence of interventions were determined. Increasing suburbanization, the rising proportion of impermeable surfaces, and the impact of climate change are of considerable importance in urban flood risk. It is necessary to help municipalities develop abilities to absorb larger amounts of rainwater.
Good weather for a ride (or not?): how weather conditions impact road accidents — a case study from Wielkopolska (Poland)
AbstractThis study offers a likely assessment of extreme meteorological events’ impact on human perceptivity, frame of mind or even health during driving which might have had a consequence as a car accident. Research covered an analysis of car accidents during period 2010–2019 in the Wielkopolska (Poland) and four indices like maximum daily temperature, maximum value of humidex, difference between maximum temperatures observed from day to day and also difference between mean atmospheric pressure at the sea level observed from day to day. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) approach was used to obtain the relationship between these indices and car accidents. Our finding evidence that the “good weather for a ride” conditions are actually generating an increased risk of accidents. For indices related to high temperature, i.e., maximum temperature and humidex, it was possible to identify the critical values by which the risks of car accidents were the highest.
Heat-Related Mortality in Two Regions of Poland: Focus on Urban and Rural Areas during the Most Severe and Long-Lasting Heatwaves
The vast majority of studies on heat-related mortality are focused on large cities. The aim of this study is to fill this research gap and to estimate the impact of high temperatures on the risk of death in smaller towns and villages. The results show that increased mortality is not only a problem in large cities. The risk of death, although usually slightly lower than in highly populated areas, may be higher for the age-related risk group. At temperatures above 35 °C, it may exceed 1.3 in smaller towns and even 1.6 in villages. The increase in mortality during five selected heat waves of high intensity and long duration was also studied for two regions of Poland: Małopolska and Wielkopolska. Towns with a population of less than 10,000 in Małopolska region, during the 2006 heatwave, experienced an increase in the number of deaths by as much as 18%. At the same time in the largest city of Małopolska-Kraków, the death toll rose by 4%. This paper also presents some differences between regions in terms of the impact of heat waves: in the lowland region of Wielkopolska, the mortality rate is generally higher than in the upland region of Małopolska.
Less power when more is needed. Climate-related current and possible future problems of the wind energy sector in Poland
The Role of Hydropower in Climate-Resilient Energy Systems: Case Study of the Jeziorsko Reservoir (Poland).
The Emergence of Different Local Resilience Arrangements Regarding Extreme Weather Events in Small Municipalities—A Case Study from the Wielkopolska Region, Poland
Compared with other parts of the world, Poland is a relatively safe country in terms of natural disasters. Nevertheless, extreme weather events have become a significant threat in recent years, especially for local communities. These are exposed to intense rainfall, heavy wind, and heatwaves, as are larger towns. However, small municipalities have different economic, social, and human potential for undertaking preventive actions regarding meteorological extremes. In this paper, we are looking at what activities local communities from the Wielkopolska region in Poland undertake to cope with extreme weather events—specifically, heavy rainfall and heatwaves. We analyze the municipalities that are most and least exposed to extremes, based on meteorological data. These are further compared with local resilience measures in the event of extreme meteorological events through the risk management analysis of selected municipalities. The emergence of two approaches regarding extreme weather events has been observed. First, local arrangements consist of different resilience types. Both of the identified approaches are concentrated around rescue activities, representing recovery resilience. They differ in the second component of resilience: municipalities that have suffered more from weather extremes manifest more resistance resilience, whereas those communities where fewer meteorological events took place demonstrate more creativity-type resilience.