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Risk of Flash Floods in Urban and Rural Municipalities Triggered by Intense Precipitation in Wielkopolska of Poland
AbstractThis research analyzed interventions of State Fire Service (SFS) units in the Wielkopolska region of Poland that were triggered by extreme precipitation for the period 2010–2021. Our results demonstrated that the most populated and urbanized towns in the Wielkopolska (Greater Poland, west of Warsaw) region are at the most risk in the event of extreme precipitation occurrence as measured by the total number of interventions made by the SFS. The number of SFS unit interventions in towns, standardized to 10,000 inhabitants, indicates that the highest proportional volume of interventions also occurred in smaller towns. In the rural municipalities the number of SFS unit interventions increases along with higher population density and proportion of infrastructure areas. As analyzed in this study, the 12 years from 2010 to 2021 were characterized by a higher number of days with heavy precipitation, for example, 20, 30, 40, and 50 mm, in comparison to the previous periods 1961–2010 and 1981–2010. Intervention databases collected by emergency services are a valuable source of information for hazard mapping. Based on those and other available data, a statistical model was created and factors influencing the local and regional occurrence of interventions were determined. Increasing suburbanization, the rising proportion of impermeable surfaces, and the impact of climate change are of considerable importance in urban flood risk. It is necessary to help municipalities develop abilities to absorb larger amounts of rainwater.
Good weather for a ride (or not?): how weather conditions impact road accidents — a case study from Wielkopolska (Poland)
AbstractThis study offers a likely assessment of extreme meteorological events’ impact on human perceptivity, frame of mind or even health during driving which might have had a consequence as a car accident. Research covered an analysis of car accidents during period 2010–2019 in the Wielkopolska (Poland) and four indices like maximum daily temperature, maximum value of humidex, difference between maximum temperatures observed from day to day and also difference between mean atmospheric pressure at the sea level observed from day to day. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) approach was used to obtain the relationship between these indices and car accidents. Our finding evidence that the “good weather for a ride” conditions are actually generating an increased risk of accidents. For indices related to high temperature, i.e., maximum temperature and humidex, it was possible to identify the critical values by which the risks of car accidents were the highest.
Controlled drainage effectiveness in reducing nutrient outflow in light of climate changes
This modeling study focused on the hydrological and water quality effects of controlled drainage (CD) when operated using a subsurface drainage system in an agricultural field in the Wielkopolska region. The DRAINMOD hydrologic model was well calibrated and validated in an experimental field. This model was used in the performance of CD and free drainage (FD) combinations (108 and 27, respectively) in a near-future climate change scenario. The objective was to understand the potential of CD on the groundwater table (GWT), drainage outflow, surface runoff, and nitrogen and phosphorus reduction under projected climate conditions in Poland during the 21st century with shared socioeconomic pathway SSP370. The results indicated that the earliest start of CD practice is the most effective in increasing GWT. Compared to current climatic conditions, when applying CD on 1 March in the near future, with an initial GWT of 60 and 80 cm b.s.l. in wet years, drainage outflows will increase by 33% and 80% for the GFDL model, by 30% and 40% for the MPI model, and by 17% and 23% for the UKESM model. Comparing the surface runoff values obtained to current climate conditions, the MPI, GFDL, and UKESM models predict a significant increase in surface runoff in the near future, which is due to the predicted increase in precipitation. The annual NO3–N reduction was by 22, 19, and 15 kg per hectare for wet, normal, and dry years, respectively, in the near future. Among the climate scenarios, the UKESM model predicted higher NO3–N and PO4 leaching values compared to the MPI and GFDL models.
Less power when more is needed. Climate-related current and possible future problems of the wind energy sector in Poland
Challenges for Flood Risk Reduction in Poland’s Changing Climate
Floods are the main natural disaster in Poland, and the risk of both fluvial and pluvial floods is serious in the country. Pluvial floods are on the rise in the changing climate, particularly in increasingly sealed urbanized areas. In this paper, we examine the changes in flood risk in Poland, discussing the mechanisms, observations, projections and variability. Next, we discuss flood risk management in the country, including specific issues related to urban and rural areas and the synergies between flood and drought risk reduction measures. We identify and assess the weaknesses of the existing flood risk management plans in Poland for the first planning period 2016–2021 and for the second planning period 2022–2027. We find the level of implementation of plans in the former period to be very low. Many planned measures do not have much to do with flood risk reduction but are often linked to other objectives, such as inland navigation. The plans contain numerous small measures, which come across as inapt and economically ineffective solutions. We specify policy-relevant recommendations for necessary and urgent actions, which, if undertaken, could considerably reduce flood risk. We also sketch the way ahead for flood risk management in Poland within the timeframe of the implementation of plans for 2022–2027 and the next regular update of plans for 2028–2033.
Vulnerability to extreme weather events: mapping future hazards in Wielkopolska region, Poland
AbstractThe aim of this study is to assess future hazards due to extreme meteorological events in the Wielkopolska region, Poland, based on five climate model projections and three scenarios: SSP126, 370, and 585. The paper analyzes the changes of mean and extreme precipitation, mean and extreme temperatures, and humidity index, as well as changes in difference between maximum temperatures observed from day to day and changes in difference between mean atmospheric pressure at the sea level observed from day to day. Additionally, we look at possible future occurrence of wildfires due to changes in fire weather conditions. Based on climate model projections, future hazard due to extreme meteorological events in Wielkopolska region is to be more serious and will be most noticeable in the end of twenty-first century and for two higher scenarios: SSP370 and SSP585. For near future, 2021–2050, projected conditions of meteorological extremes for analyzed scenarios are quite consistent. Therefore, there is a strong need for implementing adaptation actions. Nevertheless, such activities are so far lacking, and several adaptation options are not present in local and national legislation, even though they are recognized as effective.