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Rivers increasingly warmer: Prediction of changes in the thermal regime of rivers in Poland

cris.lastimport.scopus2025-10-23T06:55:05Z
cris.virtual.author-orcid#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0002-1453-0374
cris.virtual.author-orcid#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
cris.virtualsource.author-orcid#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
cris.virtualsource.author-orcid917b05fe-6da6-4828-82f0-08b7c58485fd
cris.virtualsource.author-orcid#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
dc.abstract.enEmphasis on future environmental changes grows due to climate change, with simulations predicting rising river temperatures globally. For Poland, which has a long history of thermal studies of rivers, such an approach has not been implemented to date. This study used 9 Global Climate Models and tested three machine-learning techniques to predict river temperature changes. Random Forest performed best, with R2=0.88 and lowest error (RMSE: 2.25, MAE:1.72). The range of future water temperature changes by the end of the 21st century was based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. It was determined that by the end of the 21st century, the average temperature will increase by 2.1°C (SSP2-4.5) and 3.7°C (SSP5-8.5). A more detailed analysis, divided by two major basins Vistula and Odra, covered about 90% of Poland’s territory. The average temperature increase, according to scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for the Odra basin rivers, is 1.6°C and 3.2°C and for the Vistula basin rivers 2.3°C and 3.8°C, respectively. The Vistula basin’s higher warming is due to less groundwater input and continental climate influence. These findings provide a crucial basis for water management to mitigate warming effects in Poland.
dc.affiliationWydział Inżynierii Środowiska i Inżynierii Mechanicznej
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Melioracji, Kształtowania Środowiska i Gospodarki Przestrzennej
dc.contributor.authorPtak, Mariusz
dc.contributor.authorAmnuaylojaroen, Teerachai
dc.contributor.authorSojka, Mariusz
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-09T11:16:08Z
dc.date.available2025-10-09T11:16:08Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.description.bibliographybibliogr.
dc.description.financepublication_nocost
dc.description.financecost0,00
dc.description.if5,2
dc.description.number1
dc.description.points70
dc.description.volume35
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11442-025-2316-5
dc.identifier.eissn1861-9568
dc.identifier.issn1009-637X
dc.identifier.urihttps://sciencerep.up.poznan.pl/handle/item/5343
dc.languageen
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Geographical Sciences
dc.relation.pages139-172
dc.rightsClosedAccess
dc.sciencecloudnosend
dc.subject.englobal warming
dc.subject.enforecasting
dc.subject.enwater temperature
dc.subject.enPoland
dc.titleRivers increasingly warmer: Prediction of changes in the thermal regime of rivers in Poland
dc.title.volumeSpecial Issue: Climate Change and Water Environment
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue1
oaire.citation.volume35