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A hybrid model for the forecasting of sea surface water temperature using the information of air temperature: a case study of the Baltic Sea

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cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0002-1453-0374
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cris.virtualsource.author-orcid917b05fe-6da6-4828-82f0-08b7c58485fd
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dc.abstract.enSea surface temperature (SST) is an important indicator of marine system. In this study, the hybrid physically-statistically based air2water model was modified for the forecasting of SST. The hybrid model combines empiricism and theory, and balances the complexity and accuracy between the process-based physical models and statistical models. Daily observed SST data (2009–2019) from six stations in the Baltic Sea were used for the evaluation of model performance. Two metrics including the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) were used for model assessment. With the increase of air temperature, SST presents a clear warming trend (0.133°C/year–0.166°C/year), and air temperature warms faster than SST in the studied stations. The modelling results indicated that the model performs well for SST forecasting (in the validation period, mean value of RMSE is 1.245°C, and mean value of NSE is 0.961). Cross-validation results showed that the model is transferable in unknown stations. However, the model works a little bit worse in the warm period due to the impact of the upwelling phenomenon. Overall, the model is a promising tool for the prediction of SST.
dc.affiliationWydział Inżynierii Środowiska i Inżynierii Mechanicznej
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Melioracji, Kształtowania Środowiska i Gospodarki Przestrzennej
dc.contributor.authorZhu, Senlin
dc.contributor.authorLuo, You
dc.contributor.authorPtak, Mariusz
dc.contributor.authorSojka, Mariusz
dc.contributor.authorJi, Qingfeng
dc.contributor.authorChoiński, Adam
dc.contributor.authorKuang, Manman
dc.date.access2025-12-11
dc.date.accessioned2025-12-22T10:57:14Z
dc.date.available2025-12-22T10:57:14Z
dc.date.copyright2022-04-13
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.accesstimeat_publication
dc.description.bibliographyil., bibliogr.
dc.description.financepublication_nocost
dc.description.financecost0,00
dc.description.if1,3
dc.description.number1
dc.description.points20
dc.description.versionfinal_published
dc.description.volume34
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/27669645.2022.2058689
dc.identifier.issn2766-9645
dc.identifier.urihttps://sciencerep.up.poznan.pl/handle/item/6464
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/27669645.2022.2058689
dc.languageen
dc.relation.ispartofAll Earth
dc.relation.pages27–38
dc.rightsCC-BY
dc.sciencecloudnosend
dc.share.typeOPEN_JOURNAL
dc.subject.ensea surface temperature
dc.subject.enairtemperature
dc.subject.enair2water
dc.subject.enbaltic sea
dc.titleA hybrid model for the forecasting of sea surface water temperature using the information of air temperature: a case study of the Baltic Sea
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue1
oaire.citation.volume34