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Citizen science helps predictions of climate change impact on flowering phenology: A study on Anemone nemorosa

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cris.virtualsource.author-orcid86de7053-c0cc-4a23-960c-fd3908659acc
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dc.abstract.enRapidly increasing resources of citizen science databases (CS) collecting information on species occurrence are increasingly useful as a data source for global biodiversity research. The photos attached to records allow to verify the species identification and identify its phenological phase. We assessed CS data's usefulness in large-scale phenological research on temperate forest understory species, using a common and widely distributed in Europe: Anemone nemorosa. We analyzed 9804 photos from CS databases. We found 177 15’ grid cells with ≥10 observations of flowering plants for bootstrap estimation of flowering onset and offset. We predicted flowering dates for the present and future climate according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways averaged over four global circulation models for 2040–60 and 2060–80 across A. nemorosa natural range. The estimated magnitude of change in the flowering phenology for both future periods is comparable. The estimated flowering onset median was 24–41 days earlier while flowering offset median was 19–34 days earlier than predicted for the current climate. We estimated a flowering length median of up to 7 days longer than for current climatic conditions. The predicted changes in the phenology of flowering will not significantly change the duration of flowering but will accelerate onset of this phenophase by about one month. Our study showed that CS might provide a valuable dataset that allows for developing reliable models of plant phenology. It was possible due to a large sample size, resulting from species characteristics: flowering when wider audience is interested in searching spring indicators, easy identification and abundant occurrence. We demonstrated that using dataset of such spatiotemporal extent can cautiously be used for development of future predictions. Such approach allows for evaluating flowering phenology in the understory and to improve understanding the consequences of climate change for biodiversity and functioning of temperate ecosystems.
dc.affiliationWydział Medycyny Weterynaryjnej i Nauk o Zwierzętach
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Zoologii
dc.contributor.authorPuchałka, Radosław
dc.contributor.authorKlisz, Marcin
dc.contributor.authorKoniakin, Serhii
dc.contributor.authorCzortek, Patryk
dc.contributor.authorDylewski, Łukasz
dc.contributor.authorPaź-Dyderska, Sonia
dc.contributor.authorVítková, Michaela
dc.contributor.authorSádlo, Jiří
dc.contributor.authorRašomavičius, Valerijus
dc.contributor.authorČarni, Andraž
dc.contributor.authorDe Sanctis, Michele
dc.contributor.authorDyderski, Marcin K.
dc.date.access2025-12-09
dc.date.accessioned2025-12-10T08:03:39Z
dc.date.available2025-12-10T08:03:39Z
dc.date.copyright2022-08-19
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.accesstimeat_publication
dc.description.bibliographyil., bibliogr.
dc.description.financepublication_nocost
dc.description.financecost0,00
dc.description.if6,2
dc.description.number15 October 2022
dc.description.points200
dc.description.versionfinal_published
dc.description.volume325
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109133
dc.identifier.issn0168-1923
dc.identifier.urihttps://sciencerep.up.poznan.pl/handle/item/6296
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192322003203?via%3Dihub
dc.languageen
dc.relation.ispartofAgricultural and Forest Meteorology
dc.relation.pagesart. 109133
dc.rightsCC-BY
dc.sciencecloudnosend
dc.share.typeOTHER
dc.subject.enbioclimatic variables
dc.subject.enflowering offset
dc.subject.enflowering onset
dc.subject.enforest understory
dc.subject.eniEcology
dc.subject.enwood anemone
dc.titleCitizen science helps predictions of climate change impact on flowering phenology: A study on Anemone nemorosa
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.volume325