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China’s Socioeconomic and CO2 Status Concerning Future Land-Use Change under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

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dc.abstract.enChina has experienced a huge socioeconomic advancement over the past few decades, resulting in great change in land use and land cover. To date, negligible attention has been given to examining the socioeconomic changes in the context of land-use change, especially from a futuristic standpoint. However, motivated by China’s latest carbon neutrality target, this study analyzes the prospective changes in socioeconomic status, and carbon dioxide emission in the context of future land-use change, focusing on three future periods: 2026–2030 (carbon dioxide peak phase), 2056–2060 (carbon-neutral phase), and 2080–2099 (long-term period). In this regard, recently published land-use products under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-based scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) as part of the CMIP6, as well as the projected GDP and population under five socioeconomic scenarios are used. To estimate socioeconomic change over prominent land-use types (urban), we combined five socioeconomic scenarios with seven corresponding SSPs-based land-use change scenarios (SSP1 with SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6; SSP2 with SSP2-4.5; SSP3 with SSP3-7.0; SSP4 with SSP4-3.4 and SSP4-6.0; and SSP5 with SSP5-8.5 scenarios). Our results reveal that rapid urban land expansion in the future is the most dominant aspect in China. In the carbon neutrality phase (2056–2060), urban land is expected to expand ~80% more than that of the reference period (1995–2014). In the spatial aspect, the expansion of urban land is mainly prominent in the eastern and central parts of China. For socioeconomic changes, the most prominent increase in the urban population is estimated at 630.8% under SSP5-8.5 for the 2056–2060 period compared to the reference period. Regarding GDP for the urban area, industrial GDP will be higher than service GDP in the carbon emission peak phase (2026–2030), but it is projected to be overtaken by service GDP for the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) and long-term periods (2080–2099). Further, the CO2 emission in China was found to increase with intensified urban land for the historical period (1995–2019). In the future, the largest increase in CO2 emission from the urban area is anticipated under SSP5-8.5 in the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) phase, while CO2 emission will largely decline after (2056–2060) under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, and SSP4-3.4. Importantly, population change is expected to be the most predominant factor in future urban land expansion in China. These findings highlight the importance of well-governed urban-land development as a key measure to achieve China’s carbon neutrality goal.
dc.affiliationWydział Inżynierii Środowiska i Inżynierii Mechanicznej
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Budownictwa i Geoinżynierii
dc.contributor.authorZhou, Jian
dc.contributor.authorJiang, Shan
dc.contributor.authorMondal, Sanjit Kumar
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Jinlong
dc.contributor.authorSu, Buda
dc.contributor.authorKundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
dc.contributor.authorChen, Ziyan
dc.contributor.authorXu, Runhong
dc.contributor.authorJiang, Tong
dc.date.access2026-02-03
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-17T12:42:14Z
dc.date.available2026-02-17T12:42:14Z
dc.date.copyright2022-03-06
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstract<jats:p>China has experienced a huge socioeconomic advancement over the past few decades, resulting in great change in land use and land cover. To date, negligible attention has been given to examining the socioeconomic changes in the context of land-use change, especially from a futuristic standpoint. However, motivated by China’s latest carbon neutrality target, this study analyzes the prospective changes in socioeconomic status, and carbon dioxide emission in the context of future land-use change, focusing on three future periods: 2026–2030 (carbon dioxide peak phase), 2056–2060 (carbon-neutral phase), and 2080–2099 (long-term period). In this regard, recently published land-use products under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-based scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) as part of the CMIP6, as well as the projected GDP and population under five socioeconomic scenarios are used. To estimate socioeconomic change over prominent land-use types (urban), we combined five socioeconomic scenarios with seven corresponding SSPs-based land-use change scenarios (SSP1 with SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6; SSP2 with SSP2-4.5; SSP3 with SSP3-7.0; SSP4 with SSP4-3.4 and SSP4-6.0; and SSP5 with SSP5-8.5 scenarios). Our results reveal that rapid urban land expansion in the future is the most dominant aspect in China. In the carbon neutrality phase (2056–2060), urban land is expected to expand ~80% more than that of the reference period (1995–2014). In the spatial aspect, the expansion of urban land is mainly prominent in the eastern and central parts of China. For socioeconomic changes, the most prominent increase in the urban population is estimated at 630.8% under SSP5-8.5 for the 2056–2060 period compared to the reference period. Regarding GDP for the urban area, industrial GDP will be higher than service GDP in the carbon emission peak phase (2026–2030), but it is projected to be overtaken by service GDP for the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) and long-term periods (2080–2099). Further, the CO2 emission in China was found to increase with intensified urban land for the historical period (1995–2019). In the future, the largest increase in CO2 emission from the urban area is anticipated under SSP5-8.5 in the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) phase, while CO2 emission will largely decline after (2056–2060) under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, and SSP4-3.4. Importantly, population change is expected to be the most predominant factor in future urban land expansion in China. These findings highlight the importance of well-governed urban-land development as a key measure to achieve China’s carbon neutrality goal.</jats:p>
dc.description.accesstimeat_publication
dc.description.bibliographyil., bibliogr.
dc.description.financepublication_nocost
dc.description.financecost0,00
dc.description.if3,9
dc.description.number5
dc.description.points100
dc.description.versionfinal_published
dc.description.volume14
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/su14053065
dc.identifier.issn2071-1050
dc.identifier.urihttps://sciencerep.up.poznan.pl/handle/item/7358
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/5/3065
dc.languageen
dc.relation.ispartofSustainability
dc.relation.pagesart. 3065
dc.rightsCC-BY
dc.sciencecloudnosend
dc.share.typeOPEN_JOURNAL
dc.subject.enland-use change
dc.subject.enpopulation
dc.subject.enGDP
dc.subject.encarbon emission
dc.subject.enSSP scenario
dc.subject.enChina
dc.titleChina’s Socioeconomic and CO2 Status Concerning Future Land-Use Change under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue5
oaire.citation.volume14