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Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Flood Hazard Zones

cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0002-7035-9874
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cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0003-0926-5462
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cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0002-3579-5072
cris.virtualsource.author-orcid2d571207-6c12-4387-94a1-bf7767fa5220
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cris.virtualsource.author-orcidfdcac286-975b-41b9-92e7-2e8e7293f6ed
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cris.virtualsource.author-orcid0d6b44ae-5d2d-45e8-a6a0-57dbe0d687ce
dc.abstract.enThere have been many destructive pluvial and fluvial floods in Poland and the projection of increasing flood hazards in the future is a reason of considerable concern. The maps of river hazard zones are changing over time, and understanding these changes is of primary importance for flood risk reduction and climate change adaptation. This article aims to assess the impact of climate change on the spatial extent and depth classes of flood hazard zones for a selected reach of the River Warta in the western part of Poland. To this end, we integrated the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model of the Warta River Basin with the 1D hydraulic model HEC-RAS of the selected reach. The climate change effect was quantified based on the coupled model simulations forced with bias-corrected projections from the EURO-CORDEX project. Flood hazard maps were developed for two townships along the River Warta (Oborniki and Wronki), three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (one for the baseline scenario in the reference period, 1971–2000; one for RCP 4.5 and one for RCP 8.5, for the time horizon 2021–2050) and for three return periods (10-, 100- and 500-year floods). Based on the ensemble mean, the increase in the flooded area projected in the future is more pronounced for RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5. This unique combination of software and data enabled the transformation of climate change impact into the land surface part of the hydrological cycle and assessment of changes in flood hazard and opens the way to assess the potential increases in the economic losses in the future.
dc.affiliationWydział Inżynierii Środowiska i Inżynierii Mechanicznej
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Inżynierii Wodnej i Sanitarnej
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Budownictwa i Geoinżynierii
dc.contributor.authorDysarz, Tomasz
dc.contributor.authorMarcinkowski Paweł
dc.contributor.authorWicher-Dysarz, Joanna
dc.contributor.authorPiniewski Mikołaj
dc.contributor.authorDorota Mirosław-Świątek
dc.contributor.authorKundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
dc.date.access2024-11-25
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-25T13:28:01Z
dc.date.available2024-11-25T13:28:01Z
dc.date.copyright2024-10-14
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstract<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>There have been many destructive pluvial and fluvial floods in Poland and the projection of increasing flood hazards in the future is a reason of considerable concern. The maps of river hazard zones are changing over time, and understanding these changes is of primary importance for flood risk reduction and climate change adaptation. This article aims to assess the impact of climate change on the spatial extent and depth classes of flood hazard zones for a selected reach of the River Warta in the western part of Poland. To this end, we integrated the Soil &amp; Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model of the Warta River Basin with the 1D hydraulic model HEC-RAS of the selected reach. The climate change effect was quantified based on the coupled model simulations forced with bias-corrected projections from the EURO-CORDEX project. Flood hazard maps were developed for two townships along the River Warta (Oborniki and Wronki), three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (one for the baseline scenario in the reference period, 1971–2000; one for RCP 4.5 and one for RCP 8.5, for the time horizon 2021–2050) and for three return periods (10-, 100- and 500-year floods). Based on the ensemble mean, the increase in the flooded area projected in the future is more pronounced for RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5. This unique combination of software and data enabled the transformation of climate change impact into the land surface part of the hydrological cycle and assessment of changes in flood hazard and opens the way to assess the potential increases in the economic losses in the future.</jats:p>
dc.description.accesstimeat_publication
dc.description.financepublication_nocost
dc.description.financecost0,00
dc.description.reviewreview
dc.description.versionfinal_published
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11269-024-04002-8
dc.identifier.eissn1573-1650
dc.identifier.issn0920-4741
dc.identifier.urihttps://sciencerep.up.poznan.pl/handle/item/2075
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11269-024-04002-8
dc.languageen
dc.pbn.affiliationenvironmental engineering, mining and energy
dc.relation.ispartofWater Resources Management
dc.rightsCC-BY
dc.sciencecloudnosend
dc.share.typeOTHER
dc.subject.enSWAT
dc.subject.enflood hazard zones
dc.subject.enclimate change
dc.subject.enHEC-RAS
dc.subject.enEU Floods Directive
dc.subtypeArticleEarlyAccess
dc.titleAssessment of Climate Change Impact on Flood Hazard Zones
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication