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Changes in extreme precipitation across South Asia for each 0.5 °C of warming from 1.5 °C to 3.0°C above pre-industrial levels

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dc.abstract.enMotivated by the Paris Agreement, this study aims to investigate the changes in precipitation extremes across South Asia and its five climatic zones for each 0.5 °C of warming above the pre-industrial level from 1.5 °C to 3.0 °C. In this regard, 20 global climate model outputs from the latest CMIP6 under four combinations of SSP-RCP scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5) are used. Four widely used extreme precipitation indices such as number of consecutive wet days (CWD), number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm), maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day), and the number of very wet days (R99pTOT) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) are applied to detect the extreme events. To ensure reduced uncertainty, we used bias-corrected and multi-model ensemble outputs. Results indicate that as the degree of global warming increases, the changes in magnitudes of extreme events are projected to intensify (except for CWD) and the largest growth is found under 3.0 °C in the entire domain and its five climatic zones. The polar climatic zone is anticipated to experience the highest magnitude of changes for extreme events under all the warming scenarios. The largest percentage of area with significant increase is found under the highest warming level (3.0 °C), especially for R95pTOT (95.5% of the entire domain). For an additional 0.5 °C (2.0–1.5 °C) of warming, the anticipated precipitation-related extremes will increase by 3.5%, (RX5day), 3.6% (R10mm) and 6.6% (R99pTOT), as mitigation targets set out in the Paris Agreement. The projected intense sea surface temperature over the Arabian Sea, and large water vapor content over South Asian landmass are expected to influence precipitation-related extreme events. Notably, considering all aspects of our analysis, R99pTOT is expected to be the most predominant extreme precipitation index across the domain with continued warming. So, our findings strongly support the Paris Agreement target to limit global warming to 1.5 °C and provide a scientific basis.
dc.affiliationWydział Inżynierii Środowiska i Inżynierii Mechanicznej
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Budownictwa i Geoinżynierii
dc.contributor.authorMondal, Sanjit Kumar
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Jinglong
dc.contributor.authorWang, Yanjun
dc.contributor.authorSu, Buda
dc.contributor.authorKundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
dc.contributor.authorJiang, Shan
dc.contributor.authorZhai, Jianqing
dc.contributor.authorChen, Ziyan
dc.contributor.authorJing, Cheng
dc.contributor.authorJiang, Tong
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-10T07:28:08Z
dc.date.available2026-02-10T07:28:08Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.bibliographyil., bibliogr.
dc.description.financepublication_nocost
dc.description.financecost0,00
dc.description.if5,5
dc.description.numberMarch 2022
dc.description.points100
dc.description.volume266
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105961
dc.identifier.eissn1873-2895
dc.identifier.issn0169-8095
dc.identifier.urihttps://sciencerep.up.poznan.pl/handle/item/7264
dc.languageen
dc.relation.ispartofAtmospheric Research
dc.relation.pagesart. 105961
dc.rightsClosedAccess
dc.sciencecloudnosend
dc.subject.englobal warming
dc.subject.enclimate change
dc.subject.enprecipitation extremes
dc.subject.ensummer monsoon
dc.subject.enSouth Asia
dc.titleChanges in extreme precipitation across South Asia for each 0.5 °C of warming from 1.5 °C to 3.0°C above pre-industrial levels
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.volume266