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Emerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global Warming

cris.lastimport.scopus2025-10-23T06:56:39Z
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dc.abstract.enAedes sp. mosquitoes are changing their geographic range in response to climate change. This is of concern because these mosquitoes can carry dengue fever and other viral diseases. Changing weather patterns can also increase the numbers of Aedes mosquitoes, leading to greater human exposure and enhancing population health risks. We project the geographic distribution of Aedes and associated changes in populations exposed to dengue in Asian metropolitan areas under warming scenarios from 1.5°C to 5.0°C above pre-industrial temperatures, using multi-model ensembles. With global warming, the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula, the coast of the Arabian Sea in southern Iran, southern Pakistan in West Asia, the Korean Peninsula, most of the Japanese islands, and parts of North China in East Asia are projected to become suitable for dengue transmission. The numbers of metropolitan areas exposed to dengue is projected to change from 142 (48%) in the reference period (1995–2014) to 211 (71%) at 5.0°C warming. With the combined impact of socioeconomic and climate change, population exposure to dengue in Asian metropolitan areas is projected to increase from 263 (multi-model range 252–268) million in 1995–2014 to 411 (394–432) million, 446 (420–490) million, 509 (475–601), 558 (493–685) and 587 (529–773) million, respectively, at 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C and 5°C warming, with an average of 2.9 million new people exposed to dengue fever in metropolitan areas each year.
dc.affiliationWydział Inżynierii Środowiska i Inżynierii Mechanicznej
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Budownictwa i Geoinżynierii
dc.contributor.authorJing, Cheng
dc.contributor.authorWang, Guojie
dc.contributor.authorEbi, Kristie L.
dc.contributor.authorSu, Buda
dc.contributor.authorWang, Xiaoming
dc.contributor.authorChen, Dong
dc.contributor.authorJiang, Tong
dc.contributor.authorKundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
dc.date.access2025-10-09
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-09T12:37:49Z
dc.date.available2025-10-09T12:37:49Z
dc.date.copyright2024-07-23
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstract<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p><jats:italic>Aedes</jats:italic> sp. mosquitoes are changing their geographic range in response to climate change. This is of concern because these mosquitoes can carry dengue fever and other viral diseases. Changing weather patterns can also increase the numbers of <jats:italic>Aedes</jats:italic> mosquitoes, leading to greater human exposure and enhancing population health risks. We project the geographic distribution of <jats:italic>Aedes</jats:italic> and associated changes in populations exposed to dengue in Asian metropolitan areas under warming scenarios from 1.5°C to 5.0°C above pre‐industrial temperatures, using multi‐model ensembles. With global warming, the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula, the coast of the Arabian Sea in southern Iran, southern Pakistan in West Asia, the Korean Peninsula, most of the Japanese islands, and parts of North China in East Asia are projected to become suitable for dengue transmission. The numbers of metropolitan areas exposed to dengue is projected to change from 142 (48%) in the reference period (1995–2014) to 211 (71%) at 5.0°C warming. With the combined impact of socioeconomic and climate change, population exposure to dengue in Asian metropolitan areas is projected to increase from 263 (multi‐model range 252–268) million in 1995–2014 to 411 (394–432) million, 446 (420–490) million, 509 (475–601), 558 (493–685) and 587 (529–773) million, respectively, at 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C and 5°C warming, with an average of 2.9 million new people exposed to dengue fever in metropolitan areas each year.</jats:p>
dc.description.accesstimeat_publication
dc.description.bibliographyil., bibliogr.
dc.description.financepublication_nocost
dc.description.financecost0,00
dc.description.if8,2
dc.description.number7
dc.description.points140
dc.description.versionfinal_published
dc.description.volume12
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2024EF004548
dc.identifier.eissn2328-4277
dc.identifier.issn2328-4277
dc.identifier.urihttps://sciencerep.up.poznan.pl/handle/item/5353
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024EF004548
dc.languageen
dc.relation.ispartofEarths Future
dc.relation.pagese2024EF004548
dc.rightsCC-BY-NC-ND
dc.sciencecloudnosend
dc.share.typeOPEN_JOURNAL
dc.subject.endengue
dc.subject.enclimate change
dc.subject.enrisk
dc.subject.enexposure
dc.subject.enAsian metropolitan areas
dc.titleEmerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global Warming
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue7
oaire.citation.volume12