Did the COVID-19 pandemic disturb intra-EU trade in agrifood products? Evidence from a counterfactual forecasting approach

This study attempts to infer the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the intra-EU agri-food trade from the out-of-sample forecasts. The article compares the actual level of trade during the COVID-19 period with counterfactual values derived from univariate forecasting models (regARIMA and Holt-Winters methods). We analyse agri-food imports and exports of the specific EU countries and EU-27 aggregate based on monthly data for the period from January 2010 to February 2022. The findings reveal a significant fall in trade activity in the first year of the pandemic that was negatively correlated to COVID-19 restrictions applied by EU countries. Surprisingly, COVID-19 restrictions do not significantly explain the very diversified agri-food trade response among EU countries during the pandemic.