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Did the COVID-19 pandemic disturb intra-EU trade in agrifood products? Evidence from a counterfactual forecasting approach

cris.virtual.author-orcid#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0002-5441-6381
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cris.virtual.author-orcid#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
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cris.virtualsource.author-orcid33947c22-02c6-486f-ac3b-b6c70394a08a
cris.virtualsource.author-orcid#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
cris.virtualsource.author-orcid#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
dc.abstract.enThis study attempts to infer the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the intra-EU agri-food trade from the out-of-sample forecasts. The article compares the actual level of trade during the COVID-19 period with counterfactual values derived from univariate forecasting models (regARIMA and Holt-Winters methods). We analyse agri-food imports and exports of the specific EU countries and EU-27 aggregate based on monthly data for the period from January 2010 to February 2022. The findings reveal a significant fall in trade activity in the first year of the pandemic that was negatively correlated to COVID-19 restrictions applied by EU countries. Surprisingly, COVID-19 restrictions do not significantly explain the very diversified agri-food trade response among EU countries during the pandemic.
dc.affiliationWydział Ekonomiczny
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Ekonomii i Polityki Gospodarczej w Agrobiznesie
dc.contributor.authorHamulczuk, Mariusz
dc.contributor.authorPawlak, Karolina
dc.contributor.authorSumner, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorSzafrański, Grzegorz
dc.date.access2024-11-30
dc.date.accessioned2025-02-09T11:30:50Z
dc.date.available2025-02-09T11:30:50Z
dc.date.copyright2024-11-29
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.accesstimeat_publication
dc.description.bibliographyil., bibliogr.
dc.description.financepublication_research
dc.description.financecost1215,00
dc.description.if1,9
dc.description.number11
dc.description.points70
dc.description.reviewreview
dc.description.versionfinal_published
dc.description.volume70
dc.identifier.doi10.17221/253/2024-AGRICECON
dc.identifier.eissn1805-9295
dc.identifier.issn0139-570X
dc.identifier.urihttps://sciencerep.up.poznan.pl/handle/item/2455
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202411-0004_did-the-covid-19-pandemic-disturb-intra-eu-trade-in-agrifood-products-evidence-from-a-counterfactual-forecasti.php
dc.languageen
dc.pbn.affiliationeconomics and finance
dc.relation.ispartofAgricultural Economics (Czech Republic)
dc.relation.pages556-564
dc.rightsCC-BY-NC
dc.sciencecloudsend
dc.share.typeOPEN_JOURNAL
dc.subject.enagricultural products
dc.subject.enCOVID restrictions
dc.subject.enEU countries
dc.subject.enfood products
dc.subject.enforeign trade
dc.titleDid the COVID-19 pandemic disturb intra-EU trade in agrifood products? Evidence from a counterfactual forecasting approach
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue11
oaire.citation.volume70