Mitigating the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on global food security – does the transit of Ukrainian cereals through Poland matter?

The article presents the results of empirical research, which constitutes a case study focused on the route through Poland as an alternative export channel for Ukrainian grain, developed under the conditions of the Russia-Ukraine war. It employs analytical methods and statistical description. By analyzing the volume, dynamics, structure, and geography of the transit, the significance of this route in unleashing Ukraine's export capabilities and its role as a substitute for traditional routes during periods of disruption is assessed. It was established that almost exclusively corn and wheat are transited (in a quantitative ratio of 2:1). The railway crossings in Dorohusk, Medyka, and Hrubieszów are of key importance, as rail transport dominates in land transport, handling over 4/5 of the total mass of transited goods. More than half of the transited grain is transported by rail and road in scattered European directions, and only less than half reaches Polish Baltic ports, mainly Gdańsk (over 3/5) and Szczecin (almost 1/5). The degree of containerization exceeds 1/4. Practically all container cargo reaches the terminal in Gdańsk, while the port in Szczecin is the leader in bulk transport. The volume of Ukrainian grain transited through Poland is relatively small compared to Ukraine's export potential, and intercontinental transport concerns only a tenth of the grain transited through Poland. It was concluded that the route through Poland primarily serves as a new export channel for Ukrainian grain to the European market and only marginally substitutes traditional routes.