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River Thermal Dynamics and Heatwaves of Polish Rivers Under Climate Change

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dc.abstract.enProgression of global warming poses a significant risk to river ecosystems. However, how river heatwaves' characteristics across complex hydrological systems alter under climate change is still poorly understood. In this study, long-term reconstructed daily river water temperatures (RWTs) from 125 hydrological stations in 70 rivers across Poland, were used. Bayesian estimator of abrupt change, seasonal change, and trend (BEAST) method was used to track the abrupt changes of RWTs. Moreover, the characteristics of river heatwaves, including number, duration, intensity, and category, were evaluated. BEAST analysis revealed pronounced spatiotemporal variability in RWT trends in Poland, influenced by natural and anthropogenic factors. Notably, the maximum abrupt changes of RWT were observed during the 1980s and 1990s. Southern Poland, particularly mountainous regions, exhibited more pronounced river temperature changes and severe heatwaves compared to the milder northern regions. Our results also showed a statistically significant increase in frequency and intensity of river heatwaves at 121 out of the 125 studied stations (p-value < 0.05), which were consistent with the warming of air temperatures. For all the designated stations, the majority of river heatwaves belonged to the category “moderate,” followed by “strong,” “severe,” and “extreme.” Number, duration, and intensity of the river heatwaves were highly correlated with air temperatures, with the correlation coefficients being 0.624, 0.631, and 0.604, respectively. Our findings further suggest that mitigation measures shall be taken to reduce the effects of climate warming on Polish river ecosystems, especially under low flow conditions which are more vulnerable to the intensified river heatwaves.
dc.affiliationWydział Inżynierii Środowiska i Inżynierii Mechanicznej
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Melioracji, Kształtowania Środowiska i Gospodarki Przestrzennej
dc.contributor.authorSun, Jiang
dc.contributor.authorDi Nunno, Fabio
dc.contributor.authorSojka, Mariusz
dc.contributor.authorGraf, Renata
dc.contributor.authorWrzesiński, Dariusz
dc.contributor.authorPtak, Mariusz
dc.contributor.authorDong, Wentao
dc.contributor.authorXu, Jiajie
dc.contributor.authorZhou, Quan
dc.contributor.authorLuo, Yi
dc.contributor.authorZhi, Wei
dc.contributor.authorNoori, Roohollah
dc.contributor.authorZhu, Senlin
dc.contributor.authorGranata, Francesco
dc.date.access2025-10-10
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-10T11:28:53Z
dc.date.available2025-10-10T11:28:53Z
dc.date.copyright2025-05-06
dc.date.issued2025
dc.description.abstract<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Progression of global warming poses a significant risk to river ecosystems. However, how river heatwaves' characteristics across complex hydrological systems alter under climate change is still poorly understood. In this study, long‐term reconstructed daily river water temperatures (RWTs) from 125 hydrological stations in 70 rivers across Poland, were used. Bayesian estimator of abrupt change, seasonal change, and trend (BEAST) method was used to track the abrupt changes of RWTs. Moreover, the characteristics of river heatwaves, including number, duration, intensity, and category, were evaluated. BEAST analysis revealed pronounced spatiotemporal variability in RWT trends in Poland, influenced by natural and anthropogenic factors. Notably, the maximum abrupt changes of RWT were observed during the 1980s and 1990s. Southern Poland, particularly mountainous regions, exhibited more pronounced river temperature changes and severe heatwaves compared to the milder northern regions. Our results also showed a statistically significant increase in frequency and intensity of river heatwaves at 121 out of the 125 studied stations (<jats:italic>p</jats:italic>‐value &lt; 0.05), which were consistent with the warming of air temperatures. For all the designated stations, the majority of river heatwaves belonged to the category “moderate,” followed by “strong,” “severe,” and “extreme.” Number, duration, and intensity of the river heatwaves were highly correlated with air temperatures, with the correlation coefficients being 0.624, 0.631, and 0.604, respectively. Our findings further suggest that mitigation measures shall be taken to reduce the effects of climate warming on Polish river ecosystems, especially under low flow conditions which are more vulnerable to the intensified river heatwaves.</jats:p>
dc.description.accesstimeat_publication
dc.description.bibliographyil., bibliogr.
dc.description.financepublication_nocost
dc.description.financecost0,00
dc.description.if5,0
dc.description.number5
dc.description.points140
dc.description.versionfinal_published
dc.description.volume61
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2024WR039331
dc.identifier.eissn1944-7973
dc.identifier.issn0043-1397
dc.identifier.urihttps://sciencerep.up.poznan.pl/handle/item/5384
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024WR039331
dc.languageen
dc.relation.ispartofWater Resources Research
dc.relation.pagese2024WR039331
dc.rightsCC-BY-NC
dc.sciencecloudnosend
dc.share.typeOPEN_JOURNAL
dc.subject.enriver heatwaves
dc.subject.enfrequency
dc.subject.enintensity
dc.subject.encategory
dc.titleRiver Thermal Dynamics and Heatwaves of Polish Rivers Under Climate Change
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue5
oaire.citation.volume61