Predicting parasitic plants Loranthus Europaeus range shifts in response to climate change

Climate change significantly influences the distribution of parasitic species, posing threats to ecosystems and economies. This study examines the potential range expansion of Loranthus europaeus, a parasitic plant impacting European forestry. We assessed the impact of predicted climate change for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 using MaxEnt modeling based on current occurrence data of L. europaeus, and the main host plant genus oak Quercus, as well as bioclimatic variables. Our model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.92). The most important variables for Europe range were range of Quercus genus. Key environmental factors included isothermality (bio3) and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio8). Under SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, our results predict significant range expansions into northern and eastern Europe, with increases of 43.5% and 53.9% by 2041–2060. Conversely, southern Europe may see contractions of 16.4–20.6%. Projections for 2061–2080 indicate further expansions up to 65.8% in northern Europe, alongside contractions up to 29.8% in southern regions, including Turkey and Greece.These shifts highlight the influence of climate change on L. europaeus distribution and underscore the need for adaptive management strategies to mitigate potential ecological and economic impacts.