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Predicting parasitic plants Loranthus Europaeus range shifts in response to climate change

cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0001-9915-3776
cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0002-4860-4984
cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0002-4653-9154
cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0002-5801-9818
cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0002-1370-7625
cris.virtualsource.author-orcide56ae6c6-4e1a-48a8-8961-870db3257ff8
cris.virtualsource.author-orcid944a894b-160b-4169-90d4-722afbfa282d
cris.virtualsource.author-orcid048c0668-fe37-48b6-9bf8-a4e5f63c3408
cris.virtualsource.author-orcid1608a5aa-340b-42e7-93a1-b9831ed54d13
cris.virtualsource.author-orcid86de7053-c0cc-4a23-960c-fd3908659acc
dc.abstract.enClimate change significantly influences the distribution of parasitic species, posing threats to ecosystems and economies. This study examines the potential range expansion of Loranthus europaeus, a parasitic plant impacting European forestry. We assessed the impact of predicted climate change for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 using MaxEnt modeling based on current occurrence data of L. europaeus, and the main host plant genus oak Quercus, as well as bioclimatic variables. Our model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.92). The most important variables for Europe range were range of Quercus genus. Key environmental factors included isothermality (bio3) and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio8). Under SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, our results predict significant range expansions into northern and eastern Europe, with increases of 43.5% and 53.9% by 2041–2060. Conversely, southern Europe may see contractions of 16.4–20.6%. Projections for 2061–2080 indicate further expansions up to 65.8% in northern Europe, alongside contractions up to 29.8% in southern regions, including Turkey and Greece.These shifts highlight the influence of climate change on L. europaeus distribution and underscore the need for adaptive management strategies to mitigate potential ecological and economic impacts.
dc.affiliationWydział Leśny i Technologii Drewna
dc.affiliationWydział Medycyny Weterynaryjnej i Nauk o Zwierzętach
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Hodowli Lasu
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Zoologii
dc.contributor.authorBaranowska, Marlena
dc.contributor.authorŁukowski, Adrian
dc.contributor.authorKorzeniewicz, Robert
dc.contributor.authorKowalkowski, Wojciech
dc.contributor.authorDylewski, Łukasz
dc.date.access2025-07-14
dc.date.accessioned2025-07-14T09:45:50Z
dc.date.available2025-07-14T09:45:50Z
dc.date.copyright2025-05-29
dc.date.issued2025
dc.description.abstract<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Climate change significantly influences the distribution of parasitic species, posing threats to ecosystems and economies. This study examines the potential range expansion of <jats:italic>Loranthus europaeus</jats:italic>, a parasitic plant impacting European forestry. We assessed the impact of predicted climate change for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 using MaxEnt modeling based on current occurrence data of <jats:italic>L. europaeus</jats:italic>, and the main host plant genus oak <jats:italic>Quercus</jats:italic>, as well as bioclimatic variables. Our model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.92). The most important variables for Europe range were range of <jats:italic>Quercus</jats:italic> genus. Key environmental factors included isothermality (bio3) and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio8). Under SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, our results predict significant range expansions into northern and eastern Europe, with increases of 43.5% and 53.9% by 2041–2060. Conversely, southern Europe may see contractions of 16.4–20.6%. Projections for 2061–2080 indicate further expansions up to 65.8% in northern Europe, alongside contractions up to 29.8% in southern regions, including Turkey and Greece.These shifts highlight the influence of climate change on <jats:italic>L. europaeus</jats:italic> distribution and underscore the need for adaptive management strategies to mitigate potential ecological and economic impacts.</jats:p>
dc.description.accesstimeat_publication
dc.description.bibliographyil., bibliogr.
dc.description.financepublication_research
dc.description.financecost12774,92
dc.description.if3,9
dc.description.points140
dc.description.versionfinal_published
dc.description.volume15
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41598-025-03631-2
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322
dc.identifier.urihttps://sciencerep.up.poznan.pl/handle/item/3864
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-03631-2
dc.languageen
dc.relation.ispartofScientific Reports
dc.relation.pagesart. 18932
dc.rightsCC-BY
dc.sciencecloudsend
dc.share.typeOPEN_JOURNAL
dc.subject.enbioclimatic variables
dc.subject.enclimate scenarios
dc.subject.enMaxEnt
dc.subject.enmistletoe
dc.subject.enoak
dc.subject.enspecies distribution modeling
dc.titlePredicting parasitic plants Loranthus Europaeus range shifts in response to climate change
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue1
oaire.citation.volume15
project.funder.nameThe publication was financed by: the Polish Minister of Science and Higher Education as part of the Strategy of the Poznan University of Life Sciences for 2024–2026 in the field of improving scientific research and development work in priority research areas.