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Long-term daily water temperatures unveil escalating water warming and intensifying heatwaves in the Odra river Basin, Central Europe

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cris.virtualsource.author-orcid917b05fe-6da6-4828-82f0-08b7c58485fd
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dc.abstract.enWater temperature is a critical indicator and weathervane of aquatic ecosystems. However, the vast majority of rivers lack long-term continuous and complete water temperature datasets. In this study, ensemble models by combining NARX (nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs) and air2stream were used to reconstruct daily river water temperatures for 27 hydrological stations in the Odra River Basin, one of the largest river systems in Europe. For each hydrological station, both the NARX and air2stream models were calibrated and validated, and the better-performed model was selected to reconstruct daily river water temperatures from 1985 to 2022. The results showed that hybrid modeling by combining NARX and air2stream is promising for reconstructing daily river water temperatures. Based on the reconstructed dataset, annual and seasonal trends of water temperature and characteristics of river heatwaves were evaluated. The results indicated that annual river water temperatures showed a consistent warming trend over the past 40 years with an average warming rate of 0.315 °C/decade. Seasonal river water temperatures indicated that summer warms faster, followed by autumn and spring, and winter river water temperatures showed an insignificant warming trend. River heatwaves are increased in frequency, duration, and intensity in the Odra River Basin, and 6 out of 27 hydrological stations have river heatwaves categorized as ‘severe’ and ‘extreme’, suggesting that mitigation measures are needed to reduce the impact of climate warming on aquatic systems. Moreover, results showed that air temperature is the major controller of river heatwaves, and river heatwaves tend to intensify with the warming of air temperatures.
dc.affiliationWydział Inżynierii Środowiska i Inżynierii Mechanicznej
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Melioracji, Kształtowania Środowiska i Gospodarki Przestrzennej
dc.contributor.authorSun, Jiang
dc.contributor.authorDi Nunno, Fabio
dc.contributor.authorSojka, Mariusz
dc.contributor.authorPtak, Mariusz
dc.contributor.authorZhou, Quan
dc.contributor.authorLuo, Yi
dc.contributor.authorZhu, Senlin
dc.contributor.authorGranata, Francesco
dc.date.access2024-12-18
dc.date.accessioned2024-12-18T09:08:14Z
dc.date.available2024-12-18T09:08:14Z
dc.date.copyright2024-08-20
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.accesstimeat_publication
dc.description.bibliographyil., bibliogr.
dc.description.financepublication_nocost
dc.description.financecost0,00
dc.description.if8,5
dc.description.number6
dc.description.points140
dc.description.versionfinal_published
dc.description.volume15
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.gsf.2024.101916
dc.identifier.issn1674-9871
dc.identifier.urihttps://sciencerep.up.poznan.pl/handle/item/2244
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987124001403
dc.languageen
dc.pbn.affiliationenvironmental engineering, mining and energy
dc.relation.ispartofGeoscience Frontiers
dc.relation.pagesart. 101916
dc.rightsCC-BY
dc.sciencecloudsend
dc.share.typeOPEN_JOURNAL
dc.subject.enriver water temperaturę
dc.subject.enensemble modeling
dc.subject.enannual variation
dc.subject.enseasonal pattern
dc.subject.enriver heatwaves
dc.titleLong-term daily water temperatures unveil escalating water warming and intensifying heatwaves in the Odra river Basin, Central Europe
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue6
oaire.citation.volume15