How big a drop in agricultural exports to the United Kingdom after Brexit? Simulations for sensitive products of four Visegrad countries

cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0002-5441-6381
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cris.virtualsource.author-orcid33947c22-02c6-486f-ac3b-b6c70394a08a
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dc.abstract.enAfter the European Union (EU) was left by the United Kingdom (UK), a free trade area was established between these economies. Although bilateral trade in all goods is tariff-free, regulatory requirements make exports more costly and burdensome. We used a partial equilibrium model to analyze the implications of Brexit for agricultural exports from Visegrad countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia). We assess trade creation and trade diversion effects resulting from an increase in non-tariff measures and border costs for 4-digit agricultural products identified as sensitive in each of the Visegrad countries. The simulations reveal that exports of sensitive products from Visegrad countries to the UK could decrease by up to 20%. While the macroeconomic importance of this change is not significant, for the producers of the sensitive goods such export losses are substantial.
dc.affiliationWydział Ekonomiczny
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Ekonomii i Polityki Gospodarczej w Agrobiznesie
dc.contributor.authorPawlak, Karolina
dc.contributor.authorHagemejer, Jan
dc.contributor.authorMichalek, Jan Jakub
dc.contributor.authorDunin-Wasowicz, Maria
dc.date.access2026-03-17
dc.date.accessioned2026-03-25T08:53:12Z
dc.date.available2026-03-25T08:53:12Z
dc.date.copyright2022-09-20
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstract<jats:p>After the European Union (EU) was left by the United Kingdom (UK), a free trade area was established between these economies. Although bilateral trade in all goods is tariff-free, regulatory requirements make exports more costly and burdensome. We used a partial equilibrium model to analyze the implications of Brexit for agricultural exports from Visegrad countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia). We assess trade creation and trade diversion effects resulting from an increase in non-tariff measures and border costs for 4-digit agricultural products identified as sensitive in each of the Visegrad countries. The simulations reveal that exports of sensitive products from Visegrad countries to the UK could decrease by up to 20%. While the macroeconomic importance of this change is not significant, for the producers of the sensitive goods such export losses are substantial.</jats:p>
dc.description.accesstimeat_publication
dc.description.bibliographyil., bibliogr.
dc.description.financepublication_nocost
dc.description.financecost0,00
dc.description.if3,7
dc.description.number9
dc.description.points100
dc.description.versionfinal_published
dc.description.volume17
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0274462
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.urihttps://sciencerep.up.poznan.pl/handle/item/7928
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0274462
dc.languageen
dc.relation.ispartofPLoS ONE
dc.relation.pagese0274462
dc.rightsCC-BY
dc.sciencecloudnosend
dc.share.typeOPEN_JOURNAL
dc.titleHow big a drop in agricultural exports to the United Kingdom after Brexit? Simulations for sensitive products of four Visegrad countries
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue9
oaire.citation.volume17