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Climate Change Will Aggravate South Asian Cropland Exposure to Drought by the Middle of 21st Century

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dc.abstract.enDrought has a paramount impact on global agriculture and food security. However, the study on future cropland areas that can incur drought is inadequate. This paper uses input parameters from 7 CMIP6 models for 7 future scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to measure South Asian cropland exposure to drought and its underlying factors. Some defined epochs such as 2021–2040 (near-term), 2041–2060 (mid-term), 2081–2100 (long-term), and 1995–2014 (reference period) are designed to explore diverse outlooks of the change. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and the Run theory methods are applied to detect drought. Results indicate an intensified cropland (under SSP4-3.4, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) in the Indo-Gangetic Plain region of South Asia, where mostly the variation occurs among scenarios and periods. Notably, the future cropland exposed to drought will increase in the 2021–2040, and 2041–2060 periods, but it intends to decline during the 2081–2100. Relatively, the exposed cropland will upturn highest by 49.2% (SSP3-7.0) in the mid-term period and decrease by −8.2% (SSP5-8.5) in the end future. Spatially, distributed cropland in the central, south-west, and portion of the northeast of South Asia are subjective to be exposed largely, but it can drop greatly across the eastern part by the end future. Importantly, the climate change effect plays a grounding role in future exposure change over the region during the near to mid-term periods, while the cropland change effect is predominant in the long-term perspectives. However, these findings signify the urgency of policymaking focusing on drought mitigation to ensure food security.
dc.affiliationWydział Inżynierii Środowiska i Inżynierii Mechanicznej
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Budownictwa i Geoinżynierii
dc.contributor.authorMondal, Sanjit Kumar
dc.contributor.authorSu, Buda
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Jinlong
dc.contributor.authorZhai, Jianqing
dc.contributor.authorWang, Guojie
dc.contributor.authorKundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
dc.contributor.authorWang, Yanjun
dc.contributor.authorJiang, Shan
dc.contributor.authorJiang, Han
dc.contributor.authorZhou, Jian
dc.contributor.authorJiang, Tong
dc.date.access2025-10-09
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-09T12:07:26Z
dc.date.available2025-10-09T12:07:26Z
dc.date.copyright2024-05-03
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstract<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Drought has a paramount impact on global agriculture and food security. However, the study on future cropland areas that can incur drought is inadequate. This paper uses input parameters from 7 CMIP6 models for 7 future scenarios (SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP4‐3.4, SSP2‐4.5, SSP4‐6.0, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) to measure South Asian cropland exposure to drought and its underlying factors. Some defined epochs such as 2021–2040 (near‐term), 2041–2060 (mid‐term), 2081–2100 (long‐term), and 1995–2014 (reference period) are designed to explore diverse outlooks of the change. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and the Run theory methods are applied to detect drought. Results indicate an intensified cropland (under SSP4‐3.4, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) in the Indo‐Gangetic Plain region of South Asia, where mostly the variation occurs among scenarios and periods. Notably, the future cropland exposed to drought will increase in the 2021–2040, and 2041–2060 periods, but it intends to decline during the 2081–2100. Relatively, the exposed cropland will upturn highest by 49.2% (SSP3‐7.0) in the mid‐term period and decrease by −8.2% (SSP5‐8.5) in the end future. Spatially, distributed cropland in the central, south‐west, and portion of the northeast of South Asia are subjective to be exposed largely, but it can drop greatly across the eastern part by the end future. Importantly, the climate change effect plays a grounding role in future exposure change over the region during the near to mid‐term periods, while the cropland change effect is predominant in the long‐term perspectives. However, these findings signify the urgency of policymaking focusing on drought mitigation to ensure food security.</jats:p>
dc.description.accesstimeat_publication
dc.description.bibliographyil., bibliogr.
dc.description.financepublication_nocost
dc.description.financecost0,00
dc.description.if8,2
dc.description.number5
dc.description.points140
dc.description.versionfinal_published
dc.description.volume12
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2023EF003872
dc.identifier.issn2328-4277
dc.identifier.urihttps://sciencerep.up.poznan.pl/handle/item/5349
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023EF003872
dc.languageen
dc.relation.ispartofEarths Future
dc.relation.pagese2023EF003872
dc.rightsCC-BY
dc.sciencecloudnosend
dc.share.typeOPEN_JOURNAL
dc.subject.encropland exposure
dc.subject.endrought
dc.subject.enland-use change
dc.subject.enSSPs
dc.subject.enSouth Asia
dc.titleClimate Change Will Aggravate South Asian Cropland Exposure to Drought by the Middle of 21st Century
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue5
oaire.citation.volume12