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Vulnerability to extreme weather events: mapping future hazards in Wielkopolska region, Poland

cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0001-6759-1595
cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0002-8989-0761
cris.virtual.author-orcid0000-0001-5487-5871
cris.virtualsource.author-orcidf14ace60-01f0-4c52-a80b-4b1f93f7d966
cris.virtualsource.author-orcid8e9590fe-311c-4187-9bc5-d31340640802
cris.virtualsource.author-orcid78e28297-4e99-4a6f-9f0c-ceb6f723dbbd
dc.abstract.enThe aim of this study is to assess future hazards due to extreme meteorological events in the Wielkopolska region, Poland, based on five climate model projections and three scenarios: SSP126, 370, and 585. The paper analyzes the changes of mean and extreme precipitation, mean and extreme temperatures, and humidity index, as well as changes in difference between maximum temperatures observed from day to day and changes in difference between mean atmospheric pressure at the sea level observed from day to day. Additionally, we look at possible future occurrence of wildfires due to changes in fire weather conditions. Based on climate model projections, future hazard due to extreme meteorological events in Wielkopolska region is to be more serious and will be most noticeable in the end of twenty-first century and for two higher scenarios: SSP370 and SSP585. For near future, 2021–2050, projected conditions of meteorological extremes for analyzed scenarios are quite consistent. Therefore, there is a strong need for implementing adaptation actions. Nevertheless, such activities are so far lacking, and several adaptation options are not present in local and national legislation, even though they are recognized as effective.
dc.affiliationWydział Rolnictwa, Ogrodnictwa i Biotechnologii
dc.affiliationWydział Inżynierii Środowiska i Inżynierii Mechanicznej
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Terenów Zieleni i Architektury Krajobrazu
dc.affiliation.instituteKatedra Melioracji, Kształtowania Środowiska i Gospodarki Przestrzennej
dc.contributor.authorPińskwar, Iwona
dc.contributor.authorChoryński, Adam
dc.contributor.authorGraczyk, Dariusz
dc.date.access2025-05-09
dc.date.accessioned2025-05-08T11:06:43Z
dc.date.available2025-05-08T11:06:43Z
dc.date.copyright2024-09-13
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstract<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>The aim of this study is to assess future hazards due to extreme meteorological events in the Wielkopolska region, Poland, based on five climate model projections and three scenarios: SSP126, 370, and 585. The paper analyzes the changes of mean and extreme precipitation, mean and extreme temperatures, and humidity index, as well as changes in difference between maximum temperatures observed from day to day and changes in difference between mean atmospheric pressure at the sea level observed from day to day. Additionally, we look at possible future occurrence of wildfires due to changes in fire weather conditions. Based on climate model projections, future hazard due to extreme meteorological events in Wielkopolska region is to be more serious and will be most noticeable in the end of twenty-first century and for two higher scenarios: SSP370 and SSP585. For near future, 2021–2050, projected conditions of meteorological extremes for analyzed scenarios are quite consistent. Therefore, there is a strong need for implementing adaptation actions. Nevertheless, such activities are so far lacking, and several adaptation options are not present in local and national legislation, even though they are recognized as effective.</jats:p>
dc.description.accesstimeat_publication
dc.description.bibliographyil., bibliogr.
dc.description.financepublication_nocost
dc.description.financecost0,00
dc.description.if3,6
dc.description.number4
dc.description.points100
dc.description.versionfinal_published
dc.description.volume24
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10113-024-02305-5
dc.identifier.eissn1436-378X
dc.identifier.issn1436-3798
dc.identifier.urihttps://sciencerep.up.poznan.pl/handle/item/2763
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-024-02305-5
dc.languageen
dc.relation.ispartofRegional Environmental Change
dc.relation.pagesart. 139
dc.relation.project2018/31/B/HS4/03223
dc.rightsCC-BY
dc.sciencecloudsend
dc.share.typeOTHER
dc.subject.enextreme weather events
dc.subject.enclimate projections
dc.subject.enCMIP6
dc.subject.enWielkopolska
dc.subject.enPoland
dc.titleVulnerability to extreme weather events: mapping future hazards in Wielkopolska region, Poland
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue4
oaire.citation.volume24