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How Much Neoprotectionism is There in Contemporary World Trade?
Abstract Negative effects of globalisation and liberalisation of trade are countered using protectionist measures. Contemporary protectionism, typically termed neoprotectionism, is put into practice using a wide variety of non-tariff instruments, with a considerably lesser degree of transparency compared to tariffs, which are more difficult to identify and measure. The aim of this paper is to determine the dynamics of protection, as well as the category and geographical structure for the use of trade policy instruments in the world goods trade in the years 2010–2022. The study was based on source materials from the Global Trade Alert (GTA) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The conducted analyses showed that interventions taken in the world goods trade in the years 2010–2022 were primarily trade restrictions executed using non-tariff measures. In terms of its geographical distribution the relatively greatest scope of protectionism observed was for the trade policy of China and the USA. In terms of the product category, the sale of agricultural produce was protected the most. The realised model of protectionism differed depending on the group of products being traded, the standard of economic development of the country implementing trade policy measures, its export specialisation and the degree of self-sufficiency. The protectionist character of the trade policy was also enhanced during economic crises.
Wybrane preferencyjne umowy handlowe w wymianie produktami rolno-żywnościowymi Unii Europejskiej
Competitive Position of EU Candidate Countries and Eastern Partnership Countries in Trading Fruit and Vegetables in the Single European Market
This study aims to assess the competitive position of EU candidate countries and Eastern Partnership countries in trading fruit and vegetables in the Single European Market in 2009 and 2023. This paper presents the amount and balance of bilateral trade in fruit and vegetables between the EU and the countries considered. It also estimates their comparative advantages in the EU internal market. A mapping tool based on the Widodo scheme was used for that purpose. This study proved that most EU candidate countries and Eastern Partnership members increased their trade values and improved their competitive position in the Single European Market (SEM) over the analyzed period. The boosters of trade included the demand in EU member markets (stimulated by the evolving consumption patterns and the widespread adoption of healthy diet patterns), the population’s purchasing power, and their willingness to buy diversified products. Turkey exported a considerable volume of fruit and vegetables to the EU and gained the strongest competitive position in the SEM. In this case, the growth of exports to the EU market was primarily driven by the production potential resulting from large agricultural land resources, climate conditions, and geographical proximity. It may be concluded that the comparative advantages gained by the analyzed countries provided a basis for a beneficial export specialization, which shows the continuous relevance of the classical theory in explaining the volume and structure of trade in agri-food products. When considering the factors determining competitiveness, it may also be stated that the neoclassical theory of factor endowment developed by Heckscher, Ohlin, and Samuelson supports the optimization of agri-food export specialization in the analyzed countries. It was also shown that bilateral trade policies and agreements are decisive in trade performance and the shaping of international competitive positions.
The Determinants of Human Well-Being in Sustainable Agriculture Policies: Reflections on the Book by Bazyli Czyżewski and Łukasz Kryszak, Sustainable Agriculture Policies for Human Well-Being: Integrated Efficiency Approach
Review of the book: B. Czyżewski, Ł. Kryszak, Sustainable Agriculture Policies for Human Well-Being: Integrated Efficiency Approach, Springer Nature, Cham 2022, pp. 256. DOI:10.1007/978-3-031-09796-6
Rentowność małych gospodarstw zarządzanych przez młodych rolników w ramach nowej strategii „od pola do stołu”
Prospects for the development of Polish agri-food exports to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership countries
Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia-Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security
The Russian–Ukrainian conflict has led to the disruption of global supply chains, thus posing a threat to food security. The study aimed to assess the short-term impact of the conflict on food supply and global retail food prices resulting from the disruption of agri-food exports from Ukraine after the war outbreak. To assess the impact of the conflict on retail prices worldwide, the actual food price level during the conflict period was compared with the counterfactual values obtained from the forecasting models. The research points to a significant decline in Ukraine’s commodity exports at the beginning of the conflict leading to a supply gap for cereals in particular, affecting global access to staple foods. As a result, global food commodity prices rose sharply, however, the upsurge was short-lived, and as early as July 2022 price indices returned to their pre-war levels. On the other hand, in most regions worldwide the gradual and persistent increase in retail food prices was observed after the war outbreak. The study also found strong regional differentiation in the response of retail food prices to the conflict due to various specific factors that exacerbated or mitigated the impact of the war.
Skutki włączenia Polski w obszar unii celnej Unii Europejskiej dla handlu zagranicznego produktami rolno-spożywczymi - z perspektywy 15 lat po akcesji do UE
Does Poland’s agri-food industry gain comparative advantage in trade with non-EU countries? Evidence from the transatlantic market
Accession of Poland to the European Single Market generated trade creation and diversion effects, which in turn resulted in a high degree of concentration of the Polish foreign trade in agri-food products with other EU countries. On the one hand, a high share of export to the markets of countries with a stable market economy is a confirmation of the Polish agri-food sector’s capacity to compete on the foreign markets. On the other hand, when considering limited capability to increase food demand in the EU it provides grounds for the assumption that further export expansion to a considerable extent will depend on the potential expansion of sale to non-EU markets. In this context significant issues include diversification of target markets and search for prospective markets outside the EU, while they also determine directions of an advantageous export specialization. In the period up to 2021 the USA was the fourth non-EU export partner of Poland in the agri-food sector after the United Kingdom, Ukraine and Russia. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the level of comparative advantages of the Polish agri-food sector on the EU and US markets in 2004–2021 using Widodo’s products mapping technique. The study used statistical data from the ComExt database of the European Statistical Office (Eurostat). The conducted studies showed Polish export specializations in the transatlantic trade, as confirmed by high comparative advantages, as well as a positive and steadily improving trade balances for food preparations, including meat, cereal, fruit and vegetable, as well as confectionery preparations, and less processed animal origin products (meat and offal as well as dairy produce). Poland had a disadvantageous competitive position in trade of products complementary in relation to domestic production, which import was necessary. In view of the comparative cost theory the directions of the realized export specialization were rational and should be maintained. While in trade with the other EU countries the competitive position of the Polish agri-food sector was weakened, it was strengthened on the US market. In view of the considerable EU market saturation the improved competitive capacity in the non-EU markets is a positive development, which is a promising finding particularly in the long-term perspective.
Nuclear reactor at home? Public acceptance of small nuclear reactors in the neighborhood
Small Nuclear Reactors (SNR) can provide climate-neutral, stable electricity and heating if located in people’s neighborhoods close to people’s dwellings. The extensive use of SNR would reduce capacity requirements for energy transmission systems and increase the overall stability of energy grids. However, the public fear location of SNR close to their homes. This paper hypothesizes that the public acceptance of SNR in the neighborhood is contingent upon knowledge of technology, fear of nuclear energy (NE), trust in the government, the expected increase of future electricity needs and the expected ability of renewables to cover these needs, environmental and climate concerns, and media exposure. We rely upon representative survey data from the Czech Republic (N = 1,013, 51.2% female, aged 18–91, M ± SD: 47.7 ± 17.6; 19.6% with higher education). Methodologically we conduct exploratory Principal Component Analysis and a series of ordinal regressions. The results suggest that the knowledge of technology, trust in the government, the preference for NE expansion, and media exposure increased the acceptance of SNR, while fear of NE decreased SNR acceptance. The perceived replaceability of conventional energy sources with renewables decreased acceptance of SNR in most cases. Surprisingly, worries about climate change reduced the support for SNR. Women accept fewer SNRs located close to their residence compared to men. More educational effort is needed in the specifics of SNR technology and the environmental effects of SNR. Media proved to be an excellent way to start.
Non-tariff dimension of neoprotectionism in world trade in agri-food products
The aim of this paper was to determine the scope of non-tariff measures used in the world agri-food trade in 2020. This study used data of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Global Trade Alert data. Applying the methodology developed by the UNCTAD and the World Trade Organization (WTO) three indexes were established to describe the use of non-tariff measures (NTMs) to trade, i.e., the Frequency Index, the Coverage Ratio and the Prevalence Ratio. The number of trade preferences and trade restrictions used by the largest exporters and importers of agri-food products was also measured. The analysis showed that the scope of use of non-tariff protection measures in world trade in agri-food products is much greater compared to other branches of the economy. In countries implementing a highly protectionist trade policy, such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Canada, the USA and Vietnam, non-tariff instruments were used in relation to all tariff lines and the entire value of import. To the greatest extent, non-tariff protection measures were adopted in the trade of non-processed plant origin products, including cereals, oilseeds and oleaginous fruit, fruit and vegetables, as well as dairy products. Countries most commonly implementing trade restrictions against their partners and, at the same time, at greatest risk of retaliatory actions on their part included EU countries, the USA and China.
Competitiveness of the EU Agri-Food Sector on the US Market: Worth Reviving Transatlantic Trade?
The systematically strengthening role of emerging economies has become a factor strongly determining the overall trade policy of the European Union (EU) and the United States of America (USA), as well as their bilateral relations. One of the initiatives aiming at the strengthening of economic ties within the transatlantic partnership, as a consequence promoting stabilization of the positions of the EU and the USA in the world economy, was related with negotiations concerning the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. The EU-USA trade talks were suspended at the end of 2016; however, the establishment of the EU-USA free trade area might be a breakthrough in the transatlantic relations, while the conclusion of this agreement would significantly determine the competitive position of the agri-food sector of these two economies, both in their bilateral relations and in world trade. In view of the above, the aim of this paper is to estimate the competitive position of the EU agri-food sector in transatlantic trade considering the conclusion of the agreement establishing the EU-USA free trade area. For this purpose, Widodo’s method of mapping products on the target market was applied. Results from the conducted analyses suggest that from 2010–2020 comparative advantages gained by the EU on the US market were sources of an advantageous export specialization. In view of the forecasted dynamic increase in agri-food export from the EU to the USA caused by possible liberalization of bilateral trade, the relatively strong competitive position of the EU on the American market might be maintained or even strengthened. However, such a situation would be determined by the regulatory cooperation progressing with the reduction of tariffs.
Does intra-industry specialisation enhance or limit comparative advantage? Evidence from the world citrus fruit trade
Towards greater integration: Prospects for the development of agri-food trade between the EU and RCEP countries
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is the largest free trade agreement in the world, making it a potentially attractive trading partner for the European Union (EU). This paper aims to fill a research gap by examining agri-food trade between the EU and RCEP, with a focus on uncovering opportunities for sectoral cooperation and identifying competitive dynamics. It employs trade structure similarity and intra-industry trade analysis, including horizontal and vertical trade flows. Using the Export Similarity Index (ESI) and Product Similarity Index (PSI), the findings indicate stable, moderate competition in agri-food trade between the EU and RCEP, with similarity indices ranging from 0.32 to 0.35. While intra-industry trade remains limited due to geographic distance, there is notable potential for expanding high-quality EU agri-food exports. The results suggest that targeted trade policies could enhance cooperation by leveraging the EU’s export strengths to meet RCEP demand. The study provides a strategic framework for future negotiations, emphasizing sectoral approaches to optimize trade outcomes and maximize trade benefits between the EU and RCEP countries.
How big a drop in agricultural exports to the United Kingdom after Brexit? Simulations for sensitive products of four Visegrad countries
After the European Union (EU) was left by the United Kingdom (UK), a free trade area was established between these economies. Although bilateral trade in all goods is tariff-free, regulatory requirements make exports more costly and burdensome. We used a partial equilibrium model to analyze the implications of Brexit for agricultural exports from Visegrad countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia). We assess trade creation and trade diversion effects resulting from an increase in non-tariff measures and border costs for 4-digit agricultural products identified as sensitive in each of the Visegrad countries. The simulations reveal that exports of sensitive products from Visegrad countries to the UK could decrease by up to 20%. While the macroeconomic importance of this change is not significant, for the producers of the sensitive goods such export losses are substantial.
Has food security in the EU countries worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic? Analysis of physical and economic access to food
The aim of the paper is to provide an ex-post assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food insecurity in the EU-27 countries expressed by physical and economic food access. We analysed trade and price effects, together with food insecurity and malnutrition indicators. Actual levels of the indicators were compared with their pre-pandemic magnitudes and/or with counterfactual levels derived from predictive models. We also aimed to compare the objective statistics with the subjective consumers’ perception of their households’ food security. Our research indicates that the EU food trade was more resilient to COVID-19 impacts than the trade in non-food products, while food trade decreases were of a temporary nature. This did not affect the trade balance significantly; however, the import reduction threatened the physical food access in most EU countries. Regarding economic food access, the results indicate that the increase in food prices was offset by the increase in disposable income. It may suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly affect the deterioration of economic access to food in the EU countries. However, the prevalence of severe food insecurity in the total population or the proportion of households reporting inability to afford a meal with meat, chicken, fish, or a vegetarian equivalent increased in 2020–2021 compared to 2019. This means that the comparative analysis of the real data on prices and households’ income, as well as consumer financial situation and food consumption affordability, does not offer a clear answer concerning the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the food security of EU households.
Determinants for international competitiveness of the food industry in 43 countries world-wide: evidence from panel models
Research background: Food industry is of key importance to each economy due to its role in ensuring food security, balancing the labour market, as well as contributing to the economic growth and international trade. With a limited increase in demand for food in many highly developed countries, further growth in this sector of the economy will largely depend on the ability to successfully distribute manufactured goods in international markets and cope with competitive pressure from other entities. Purpose of the article: Therefore, the study attempts to assess the determinants of international competitiveness of the food industry worldwide measured by the trade balance. Methods: The research was based on data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Data Center (UNCTADStat) and the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). The time frame for the analyses was determined by the availability of internationally comparable data and thus covered the period of 2000?2014. The empirical analysis was performed with the use of panel models, while international competitiveness was measured by trade balance (net export). Findings & value added: It was proved that increasing trade openness and relative demand, as well as decreasing relative unit labour costs have a positive impact on international competitiveness of the food industry worldwide. However, the nature of the relationship between relative labour productivity and trade balance appears to be ambiguous. A stronger impact of the examined factors on net exports in the long-run rather than the short-run was also evidenced. The novelty of our analysis is that we consider trade balance determinants of the food industry worldwide using panel models, whereas most of the existing studies focus either on one or a narrow group of countries.
