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Lake Water Temperature Modeling in an Era of Climate Change: Data Sources, Models, and Future Prospects
AbstractLake thermal dynamics have been considerably impacted by climate change, with potential adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. To better understand the potential impacts of future climate change on lake thermal dynamics and related processes, the use of mathematical models is essential. In this study, we provide a comprehensive review of lake water temperature modeling. We begin by discussing the physical concepts that regulate thermal dynamics in lakes, which serve as a primer for the description of process‐based models. We then provide an overview of different sources of observational water temperature data, including in situ monitoring and satellite Earth observations, used in the field of lake water temperature modeling. We classify and review the various lake water temperature models available, and then discuss model performance, including commonly used performance metrics and optimization methods. Finally, we analyze emerging modeling approaches, including forecasting, digital twins, combining process‐based modeling with deep learning, evaluating structural model differences through ensemble modeling, adapted water management, and coupling of climate and lake models. This review is aimed at a diverse group of professionals working in the fields of limnology and hydrology, including ecologists, biologists, physicists, engineers, and remote sensing researchers from the private and public sectors who are interested in understanding lake water temperature modeling and its potential applications.
River water temperature prediction using hybrid machine learning coupled signal decomposition: EWT versus MODWT
Three Environments, One Problem: Forecasting Water Temperature in Central Europe in Response to Climate Change
Water temperature is a fundamental parameter influencing a range of biotic and abiotic processes occurring within various components of the hydrosphere. This study presents a multi-step, data-driven predictive modeling framework to estimate water temperatures for the period 2021–2100 in three aquatic environments in Central Europe: the Odra River, the Szczecin Lagoon, and the Baltic Sea. The framework integrates Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Random Sample Consensus (RANSAC) regression, Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), and Random Forest (RF) machine learning models. To assess the performance of the models, the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were used. The results showed that the application of statistical downscaling methods improved the prediction of air temperatures with respect to the BMA. Moreover, the RF method was used to predict water temperature. The best model performance was obtained for the Baltic Sea and the lowest for the Odra River. Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenario-based simulations, projected air temperature increases in the period 2021–2100 could range from 1.5 °C to 1.7 °C and 4.7 to 5.1 °C. In contrast, the increase in water temperatures by 2100 will be between 1.2 °C and 1.6 °C (SSP2-4.5 scenario) and between 3.5 °C and 4.9 °C (SSP5-8.5).
Long-term daily water temperatures unveil escalating water warming and intensifying heatwaves in the Odra river Basin, Central Europe
Diversification of macrophytes within aquatic nature-based solutions (NBS) developing under urban environmental conditions across European cities
150-year daily data (1870–2021) in lakes and rivers reveals intensifying surface water warming and heatwaves in the Pannonian Ecoregion (Hungary)
How Climate Change Affects River and Lake Water Temperature in Central-West Poland—A Case Study of the Warta River Catchment
Climate change has a significant impact on the abiotic and biotic environment. An increase in air temperatures translates into higher temperatures of water constituting the habitat of a wide range of species. The purpose of this study is to present the direction and extent of water temperature increases in eight rivers and three lakes on a monthly and annual basis. The analysis of river water temperatures used both measured data and data reconstructed using artificial neural networks from the period of 1984–2020. The analysis of the direction and extent of changes in air and water temperatures was performed using Mann-Kandall tests and a modified Sen test. The analysis of water temperature changes was conducted against the background of climatic conditions and catchment characteristics. The results indicate that in the Warta River basin in the period of 1984–2020, the average annual temperature rise reached 0.51 °C decade−1, ranging from 0.43 to 0.61 °C decade−1. This translated into an increase in mean annual water temperatures in lakes in a range from 0.14 to 0.58 °C decade−1, and for rivers in a range from 0.10 to 0.54 °C decade−1. The greatest changes in air temperature occurred in April, June, August, September, and November. It was reflected in an increase in water temperature in lakes and rivers. However, these changes did not occur in all rivers and lakes, suggesting the role of local factors that modify the effect of climate change. The study showed that the extent of air temperature changes was significantly higher than the extent of water temperature changes in rivers.
Directions and Extent of Flows Changes in Warta River Basin (Poland) in the Context of the Efficiency of Run-of-River Hydropower Plants and the Perspectives for Their Future Development
This paper presents changes in the flow of 14 rivers located in the Warta River basin, recorded from 1951 to 2020. The Warta is the third-longest river in Poland. Unfortunately, the Warta River catchment area is one of the most water-scarce regions. It hosts about 150 hydropower plants with a capacity of up to 5 kW. The catchment areas of the 14 smaller rivers selected for the study differ in location, size, land cover structure and geological structure. The paper is the first study of this type with respect to both the number of analyzed catchments, the length of the sampling series and the number of analyzed flow characteristics in this part of Europe. The analysis of changes in the river flows was performed with reference to low minimum, mean and maximum monthly, seasonal and annual flows. Particular attention was paid to 1, 3, 7, 30 and 90-day low flows and durations of the flows between Q50 and Q90%. In addition, the duration of flows between Q50 and Q90% were analysed. Analysis of the direction and extent of particular flow types was performed by multitemporal analysis using the Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen (S) tests. The analysis of multiannual flow sequences from the years 1951–2020 showed that the changes varied over the time periods and catchments. The most significant changes occurred in the low flows, while the least significant changes occurred in the high flows. From the point of view of the operation of the hydropower sector, these changes may be unfavourable and result in a reduction in the efficiency of run-of-river hydropower plants. It was established that local factors play a dominant role in the shaping of river flows in both positive and negative terms, for the efficiency of the hydropower plants.
A Century of Changes in the Surface Area of Lakes in West Poland
Lakes are an important element of the hydrosphere that contribute to the stabilisation of water circulation by providing biodiversity conditions or supporting the development of different branches of the economy. All these properties depend on the longevity of lakes in the environment and the processes related to their evolution. Based on archival morphometric data from historical maps and modern cartographic studies, this paper presents an analysis of changes in their surface area over a period of 100 years. Among 169 lakes, a decrease in surface area was recorded in 156 cases (including the complete disappearance of two lakes); no change was observed in four lakes; and seven lakes increased their surface area. The total surface area of all the lakes has decreased by 11.4% in comparison with the initial state in the early 20th century. The highest rate of decline concerned the shallowest lakes with a maximum depth of up to 5.0 m and lakes with the smallest surface area of up to 20 ha, averaging 24.1% and 22.2%, respectively. The spatial distribution of changes in the surface area of lakes is variable, and at a larger scale it presents no similarities. This suggests that factors determining the rate and direction of changes in the surface area of lakes depend on their individual features and local conditions, which is in accordance with similar studies from the territory of Poland. The obtained results reveal the scale of the changes in the surface area of the lakes, potentially providing important information for authorities in charge of water management in the context of activities aimed at slowing down the disappearance of these valuable ecosystems.
Various Indices of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought in the Warta Basin in Poland
The Warta River basin, Poland’s third-largest basin, is highly vulnerable to drought, which occurs in both cold and warm seasons. This study examined meteorological and hydrological droughts using daily temperature and precipitation data from 211 meteorological stations and discharge data from 15 hydrological gauges for 2000–2020. Four indicators were applied: SPI and SPEI for meteorological drought, and SRI and ThLM for hydrological drought. The analysis revealed prolonged droughts and a systematic decline in SRI values, especially from March to September. The longest event, a shallow drought, lasted 555 days between 2019 and 2020 at the Sławsk gauge. The period from 2018 to 2020 was particularly severe, with drought intensity increasing and affecting 70–80% of river flows, while events persisted longer than usual. Water withdrawals, especially for municipal use, further reduced river levels. The section between Uniejów and Oborniki, located downstream of one of Poland’s largest reservoirs, proved most vulnerable to hydrological drought. Overall, results indicate a deteriorating water situation in the Warta basin, with the most significant deficits in spring and summer. These trends pose serious challenges for water management and water supply security. An improved understanding of meteorological and hydrological droughts and their impact is essential for managing the water–food–environment–energy nexus, including restrictions on water use for domestic, economic, and agricultural purposes, as well as the functioning of aquatic ecosystems.
Assessment of spatial distribution of sediment contamination with heavy metals in the two biggest rivers in Poland
Less and thinner ice: seven decades of change in the ice cover of temperate lakes (Central Europe, Poland)
Trends of Changes in Minimum Lake Water Temperature in Poland
Water temperature in lakes is their basic property that determines many processes. Changes in average values are thoroughly investigated using a long-term approach. Knowledge of extreme situations such as temperature minimums is still insufficient. This paper analyses changes in the minimum temperature in 10 lakes in Poland in the period 1972–2021. The obtained results show variability over the course of the parameter, both at the annual and monthly scale. In the first case, half of the analysed set showed statistically significant increasing trends (on average 0.10 °C per decade). In the latter case, the greatest changes occurred in the months of the warm half-year (on average 0.57 °C per decade). The reported situation is caused by the individual conditions of particular lakes, i.e., their location, morphometric parameters, or the dynamics of the occurrence of ice phenomena. A successive increase in the minimum temperature in lakes has its consequences for biotic and abiotic processes. Exceeding specific thresholds results in the evident transformation of these ecosystems.
Long-Term Changes in the Thermal and Ice Regime of the Biebrza River (Northeastern Poland) in the Era of Global Warming
In the context of ongoing environmental changes, particularly against the backdrop of global warming, significant attention is being given to areas of exceptional natural value that, in many aspects, retain a pristine character. One such area is the Biebrza River in northeastern Poland, which, together with the wetlands in its basin, forms one of the most valuable ecosystems of its kind in Europe. This study analyses the changes in the thermal and ice regime for two hydrological stations, Sztabin and Burzyn, in the period from 1959 to 2023. It was found that the average annual water temperature in this period for the Biebrza River increased by 0.28 °C/decade, and in the case of ice phenomena, statistically significant changes for both stations showed a decline, with an acceleration of the ice cover disappearance by an average of 3 days/decade. These recorded changes should be considered unfavourable, as they will affect the transformation of both the biotic and abiotic characteristics of the river itself, as well as the natural elements associated with it.
Seven Decades of Surface Temperature Changes in Central European Lakes: What Is Next?
Lakes are vital components of the hydrosphere, holding both environmental and economic significance. In recent times, they have undergone transformations in one of their key characteristics—water temperature. Assessing the scale and pace of these changes depends on the length and accuracy of the available data. This study focuses on the two lakes in Poland (Białe Augustowskie and Studzieniczne) with the longest continuous water temperature records, ranging from 1954 to 2023. The results reveal a relatively stable thermal regime until the late 1980s (with changes that were statistically insignificant) and a significant shift over the past three decades, during which the water temperature increased at a rate of 0.5 °C per decade. Importantly, simulations indicate further warming of the water by the end of the 21st century. Depending on the chosen climate change scenario, the warming of both lakes is expected to continue, with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP585) scenario projecting a steady increase of 0.5 °C per decade. Given the fundamental importance of water temperature in determining factors such as water quality, these future changes present a significant challenge for water management authorities in terms of maintaining and managing these ecosystems.
Influence of the Jeziorsko Dam Reservoir on Water Flow in the Warta River
The progressing development of civilisation and climate change require access to an appropriate quantity of environmental resources. One of the key resources is water. Both its deficit and excess evidently affect human life. Control over water circulation is possible owing to water management, largely involving introduction of hydraulic structures. The paper analyses the effect of the Jeziorsko dam reservoir on the flows of the Warta River, the third largest river in Poland. It analyses water flows in the Warta River in the years 1993–2020 for hydrological stations above and below the reservoir. The conducted research showed that the construction of the Jeziorsko reservoir also substantially contributed to an increase in minimum flows and a decrease in maximum flows. Moreover, the simulation showed that in the case of abscence of the reservoir, the flows of the Warta River would be higher in the period from January to June, and in the period from July to October the opposite situation would occur. In November and December, the flows would be at a similar level. Results obtained in the study, show that hydraulic structures are an effective solution in the context of stabilisation of the hydrological situation in a given region, particularly in terms of hydrological lows occurring with increasing intensity mitigated on sections of rivers below the reservoirs.
The Relationship between Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases and Total Drinking Water Hardness: Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis
Background: Interest in water chemical activity, its content, and its impact on human health has greatly increased throughout the last decade. Some studies suggest that drinking water with high hardness may have preventative effects on cardiovascular diseases. This study aims to investigate the association between drinking water hardness and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Methods: The study selection process was designed to find the association between drinking water hardness and CVDs mortality. The search included both qualitative and quantitative research and was performed in three databases: Web of Science (Clarivate Analytics, Ann Arbor, MI, USA), PubMed (National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MA, USA), and Scopus (Elsevier, RELX Group plc, London, UK). The project was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO), registration number: CRD42020213102. Results: Seventeen studies out of a total of twenty-five studies qualitatively analyzed indicated a significant relation between total water hardness and protection from CVD mortality. The quantitative analysis concluded that high drinking water hardness has a significantly lowering effect on mortality from CVDs, however, the heterogeneity was high. Conclusions: This systematic literature review shows that total water hardness could affect CVD prevention and mortality. Due to the many confounding factors in the studies, more research is needed.
