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Reconstruction of Surface Water Temperature in Lakes as a Source for Long-Term Analysis of Its Changes
One of the key parameters of lakes is water temperature, which influences many physical and biochemical processes. In Poland, in situ temperature measurements are or have been conducted in only about 30 lakes, whereas there are over 3000 lakes with an area larger than 10 hectares. In many cases, the length of existing observation series is not always sufficient for long-term analysis. Using artificial neural networks of the multilayer perceptron network (MLP) type, the reconstruction of average monthly water temperatures was carried out for nine lakes located in northern Poland. During the validation stage of the reconstruction results, BIAS values were obtained in the range of −0.33 to 0.44 °C, the mean absolute error was 0.46 °C, and the root mean square error was 0.61 °C. The high quality of the reconstructed data allowed for an assessment of water temperature changes in the analyzed lakes from 1993 to 2022 using the Mann–Kendall and Sen tests. It was found that, on an annual basis, the water temperature increased by an average of 0.50 °C per decade, ranging from 0.36 °C per decade to 0.64 °C per decade for individual lakes. For specific months, the largest increase was observed in November, about 0.99 °C per decade, and the smallest in May, 0.07 °C per decade. The obtained results confirm previous studies in this field while adding new data from lakes, which are particularly significant for the western part of Poland—a region with a previously limited number of monitored lakes. According to the findings, the analyzed lakes have undergone significant warming over the past three decades, which is important information for water management authorities.
Analysis of the impact of road noise on urban green spaces: a case study of the dendrological garden in Poznań, Poland
Abstract Green parks and gardens in urban areas are an essential part of ecosystem services for inhabitants, especially in cities where people are affected by road noise. These problems have been the subject of many studies worldwide. Such works have been carried out at many levels—both in the contexts of spatial planning and ecological analyses. In relation to this, the design of noise maps and related spatial modelling is significant. The paper presents the results of a survey of the acoustic environment in the Dendrological Garden in Poznań—the fifth largest city in Poland—which is a vital part of the city’s green zone. The analysis of the noise distribution across the park’s zones was carried out at frequent intervals using sound-level surveys during 2014 and 2020. Moreover, acoustic maps developed for Poznań in 2012 and 2017 were compared with these recent studies. The changes (gain or loss) in those areas with a particular noise level are based on the area variability index.
Spatial distribution of trace and rare earth elements of bottom sediments in Lake Ostrowite, Bory Tucholskie National Park, Poland
AbstractLake pollution has attracted concerns worldwide; especially the excessive accumulation of trace elements (TEs) and rare earth elements (REEs) in bottom sediments can pose a serious threat to ecosystem health. However, there is still a knowledge gap on the level of sediment pollution in lakes isolated from the direct impact of pollution sources, their spatial variability, and also on the factors influencing this state. The aim of this study is to investigate the level and spatial variability of TEs and REEs concentrations, as well as to determine their source and the factors determining their distribution in the bottom sediments of Lake Ostrowite. Lake Ostrowite is the largest and deepest water body located in the Bory Tuholskie National Park (in northern Poland), which completely isolates the lake from the direct impact of pollution sources. The study covered analyses of 32 surface samples of bottom sediments. The concentrations of 24 TEs and 14 REEs were determined using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP‐QQQ‐MS). The assessment of the enrichment of bottom sediments in TEs and REEs employed geochemical background values (GBV) that provided the basis for the calculation of relative concentrations and geochemical indices. The determination of their sources and supply routes was based on the cluster analysis and principal component analysis. The obtained results point to the enrichment of the bottom sediments with TEs and REEs. Relative concentration values of TEs and REEs in reference to geochemical background values were in ranges from 0.01 to 7.31, at an average of 0.99, and from 0.03 to 4.29, averaging 1.76, respectively. The enrichment factor values show moderately severe enrichment of sediments at the study sites. This was primarily determined by the concentrations of Ag (from the TEs group) and Lu (from the REEs group). The metal pollution index values showed an approximate spatial distribution of points in terms of the presence of TEs and REEs. The lowest concentrations of TEs and REEs occurred on the eastern shore of the western basin of Lake Ostrowite. TEs and REEs concentrations in sediments are positively correlated with the content of organic matter and depth and negatively correlated with distance of the sampling point from the river outflow from Lake Ostrowite. On the eastern shore of the western basin, TEs and REEs concentrations are additionally shaped by wind, predominantly from the western direction. With water wave action, organic matter is transported to the central part of the western basin, where it is accumulated. Since the lake is isolated from point and nonpoint pollution sources, relevant from a biogeochemical point of view are dry and wet depositions from the atmosphere as well as aquatic vegetation, shoreline vegetation, forest litter, soil, and groundwater.
Challenges and Prospects for Modeling Lake Water Temperature in a Changing Climate
Climate change is having a significant impact on the temperature dynamics of lakes worldwide, affirming the need for accurate modeling to inform management and conservation strategies.
Utilizing Multi-Source Datasets for the Reconstruction and Prediction of Water Temperature in Lake Miedwie (Poland)
Water temperature is a fundamental parameter of aquatic ecosystems. It directly influences most processes occurring within them. Hence, knowledge of this parameter’s behavior, based on long-term (reliable) observations, is crucial. Gaps in these observations can be filled using contemporary methodological solutions. Difficulties in reconstructing water temperature arise from the selection of an appropriate methodology, and overcoming them involves the proper selection of input data and choosing the optimal modeling approach. This study employed the air2water model and Landsat satellite imagery to reconstruct the water temperature of Lake Miedwie (the fifth largest in Poland), for which field observations conducted by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute ended in the late 1980s. The approach based on satellite images in this case yielded less accurate results than model analyses. However, it is important to emphasize the advantage of satellite images over point measurements in the spatial interpretation of lake thermal conditions. In the studied case, due to the lake’s shape, the surface water layer showed no significant thermal contrasts. Based on the model data, long-term changes in water temperature were determined, which historically (1972–2023) amounted to 0.20 °C per decade. According to the adopted climate change scenarios by the end of the 21st century (SSP245 and SSP585), the average annual water temperature will be higher by 1.8 °C and 3.2 °C, respectively. It should be emphasized that the current and simulated changes are unfavorable, especially considering the impact of temperature on water quality. From an economic perspective, Lake Miedwie serves as a reservoir of drinking water, and changes in the thermal regime should be considered in the management of this ecosystem.
Long-term daily water temperatures unveil escalating water warming and intensifying heatwaves in the Odra river Basin, Central Europe
Historical and Future Changes in Water Temperature in the Pilica River (Central Europe) in Response to Global Warming
This study analyzes changes in the water temperature in the Pilica River (Poland), encompassing both historical data (1958–2023) and projections extending to the year 2100. We use multi-model ensembles (MMEs) with Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to integrate various Global Climate Model (GCM) datasets for current and projected climate data. Additionally, a Random Forest (RF) machine learning method is applied to project future water temperatures in the Pilica River. It has been demonstrated that over a period of more than sixty years, the average annual water temperature has increased by nearly 2 °C. Further changes are expected to continue in a similar direction with a gradual rise in this parameter, reaching a temperature increase of 3 °C by the end of the 21st century (SSP585). In the distant future, with average monthly water temperature changes at the Przedbórz station ranging from 0.27 °C to 0.87 °C·decade−1 and at the Białobrzegi station from 0.22 °C to 1.06 °C·decade−1. The results of these changes are concerning, especially considering the crucial role of water temperature in shaping seasonality and the dynamics of processes occurring within the river. In the context of the sustainability of the river itself, but also of the entire catchment area, strategies developed by relevant public administration bodies are needed to mitigate the impacts of global warming observed in the thermal regime of the Pilica River.
Are Agroecosystem Services Under Threat? Examining the Influence of Climate Externalities on Ecosystem Stability
This study examines the impacts of climate-induced externalities on the stability of agroecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide. Using the PRISMA approach, we review literature published from 2015 to 2024. The study identifies how extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, and altered precipitation patterns disrupt the provisioning, regulating, and supporting services critical to food security, soil fertility, water purification, and biodiversity. Our findings show a continued increase in climate extremes, raising concerns about food security, environmental resilience, and socio-economic stability. It also reveals that regions dependent on rain-fed agriculture, such as parts of Africa, Asia, and the Mediterranean, are particularly vulnerable to these stressors. Adaptation strategies, including conservation agriculture, crop diversification, agroforestry, and improved water management, are identified as crucial for mitigating these impacts. This study emphasises the importance of proactive, policy-driven approaches to foster climate resilience, support agroecosystem productivity, and secure ecosystem services critical to human well-being and environmental health.
Role of Lake Morphometric and Environmental Drivers of Ice Cover Formation and Occurrence on Temperate Lakes: A Case Study from the Eastern Baltic Lakeland, Poland
The presence of ice cover on temperate lakes is a crucial factor in determining the functioning of these ecosystems. The isolation of water from atmospheric influences significantly alters physical, chemical, and biological processes, and the intensity of this impact depends on the duration of the ice cover. This study analyzed the basic parameters of ice cover on several dozen lakes in Northeastern Poland. The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of morphometric parameters, alongside environmental factors, on the variation of ice cover characteristics in lakes located within the Eastern Baltic Lakeland. Characterization of ice conditions in the analyzed lakes was based on basic statistics such as minimum and maximum values, mean, standard deviation, coefficients of variation, skewness, and kurtosis. Given that the dataset contains variables describing ice phenomena in the studied lakes and data describing location, morphometric parameters, and land cover directly adjacent to the lake (treated as independent variables), a method of Spearman’s rank correlations and constrained ordination method were decided upon. Despite the relatively small study area, significant variability was observed, with average differences as follows: 26 days for the onset of ice cover, 17 days for the end date, 15 cm for ice thickness, and a 30-day difference in the average duration of ice cover. Key factors included parameters such as lake volume, average depth, and land use (urbanized and agricultural areas). Understanding parameters such as the onset and end of ice cover is essential for lake ecosystems, both from an ecological and economic perspective. This knowledge is crucial for interpreting the behavior of living organisms, water quality, and economic considerations.
Innowacje technologiczne oraz system monitoringu, prognozowania i operacyjnego planowania działań melioracyjnych, dla precyzyjnego gospodarowania wodą w skali obiektu melioracyjnego
Diversification of macrophytes within aquatic nature-based solutions (NBS) developing under urban environmental conditions across European cities
Assessment of the Impact of Meteorological Variables on Lake Water Temperature Using the SHapley Additive exPlanations Method
The water temperature of lakes is one of their fundamental characteristics, upon which numerous processes in lake ecosystems depend. Therefore, it is crucial to have detailed knowledge about its changes and the factors driving those changes. In this article, a neural network model was developed to examine the impact of meteorological variables on lake water temperature by integrating daily meteorological data with data on interday variations. Neural networks were selected for their ability to model complex, non-linear relationships between variables, often found in environmental data. Among various architectures, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was chosen due to its superior performance, achieving an R2 of 0.999, MSE of 0.0352, and MAE of 0.1511 in validation tests. These results significantly outperformed other models such as Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Two lakes (Lake Mikołajskie and Sławskie) differing in morphometric parameters and located in different physico-geographical regions of Poland were analyzed. Performance metrics for both lakes show that the model is capable of providing accurate water temperature forecasts, effectively capturing the primary patterns in the data, and generalizing well to new datasets. Key variables in both cases turned out to be air temperature, while the response to wind and cloud cover exhibited diverse characteristics, which is a result of the morphometric features and locations of the measurement sites.
Seven Decades of Surface Temperature Changes in Central European Lakes: What Is Next?
Lakes are vital components of the hydrosphere, holding both environmental and economic significance. In recent times, they have undergone transformations in one of their key characteristics—water temperature. Assessing the scale and pace of these changes depends on the length and accuracy of the available data. This study focuses on the two lakes in Poland (Białe Augustowskie and Studzieniczne) with the longest continuous water temperature records, ranging from 1954 to 2023. The results reveal a relatively stable thermal regime until the late 1980s (with changes that were statistically insignificant) and a significant shift over the past three decades, during which the water temperature increased at a rate of 0.5 °C per decade. Importantly, simulations indicate further warming of the water by the end of the 21st century. Depending on the chosen climate change scenario, the warming of both lakes is expected to continue, with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP585) scenario projecting a steady increase of 0.5 °C per decade. Given the fundamental importance of water temperature in determining factors such as water quality, these future changes present a significant challenge for water management authorities in terms of maintaining and managing these ecosystems.
Long-Term Changes in the Thermal and Ice Regime of the Biebrza River (Northeastern Poland) in the Era of Global Warming
In the context of ongoing environmental changes, particularly against the backdrop of global warming, significant attention is being given to areas of exceptional natural value that, in many aspects, retain a pristine character. One such area is the Biebrza River in northeastern Poland, which, together with the wetlands in its basin, forms one of the most valuable ecosystems of its kind in Europe. This study analyses the changes in the thermal and ice regime for two hydrological stations, Sztabin and Burzyn, in the period from 1959 to 2023. It was found that the average annual water temperature in this period for the Biebrza River increased by 0.28 °C/decade, and in the case of ice phenomena, statistically significant changes for both stations showed a decline, with an acceleration of the ice cover disappearance by an average of 3 days/decade. These recorded changes should be considered unfavourable, as they will affect the transformation of both the biotic and abiotic characteristics of the river itself, as well as the natural elements associated with it.
150-year daily data (1870–2021) in lakes and rivers reveals intensifying surface water warming and heatwaves in the Pannonian Ecoregion (Hungary)
How Useful Are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Observations for Inland Water Temperature Monitoring and Warming Trend Assessment in Temperate Lakes in Poland?
Continuous software development and widespread access to satellite imagery allow for obtaining increasingly accurate data on the natural environment. They play an important role in hydrosphere research, and one of the most frequently addressed issues in the era of climate change is the thermal dynamics of its components. Interesting research opportunities in this area are provided by the utilization of data obtained from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS). These data have been collected for over two decades and have already been used to study water temperature in lakes. In the case of Poland, there is a long history of studying the thermal regime of lakes based on in situ observations, but so far, MODIS data have not been used in these studies. In this study, the available products, such as 1-day and 8-day MODIS land surface temperature (LST), were validated. The obtained data were compared with in situ measurements, and the reliability of using these data to estimate long-term thermal changes in lake waters was also assessed. The analysis was conducted based on the example of two coastal lakes located in Poland. The results of 1-day LST MODIS generally showed a good fit compared to in situ measurements (average RMSE 1.9 °C). However, the analysis of long-term trends of water temperature changes revealed diverse results compared to such an approach based on field measurements. This situation is a result of the limited number of satellite data, which is dictated by environmental factors associated with high cloud cover reaching 60% during the analysis period.
